- The Guardians are -210 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke
- Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Kansas City Royals (+170) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-210) on Tuesday, July 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Royals vs Guardians Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 29-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 49-51 ATS.
Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -115 | O 8.5 +100 | +170 |
| Guardians | -1.5 -105 | U 8.5 -120 | -210 |
Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 77.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- MJ Melendez has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 23 games (+19.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+10.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+10.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+10.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+12.60 Units / 47% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 20 games (+9.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+8.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+8.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+7.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Guardians vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Guardians vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +110 |
| Will Brennan | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -200 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +140 | 1.5 -190 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Guardians vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Greinke | 2.5 +110 | 2.5 -145 |
| Aaron Civale | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 81 games (+8.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 98 games (+8.15 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+4.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.25 Units / 25% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 45 games at home (+14.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 31 of their last 49 games (+10.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 58 games (+9.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+7.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 31 games at home (+3.55 Units / 8% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 40-62 against the Run Line (-32.55 Units / -26.11% ROI).
- 29-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -31.8 Units / -30.1% ROI
- 46-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.6 Units / -12.12% ROI
- 54-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.1 Units / 2.76% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 49-51 against the Run Line (-3.05 Units / -2.39% ROI).
- 49-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.6 Units / -9.84% ROI
- 41-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.9 Units / -17.99% ROI
- 55-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.5 Units / 9.58% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Greinke has allowed an OPS of 1.286 (66 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .762 — 0 Percentile.
Zack Greinke has allowed a slugging percentage of .877 (57 Total Bases / 65 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .437 — first Percentile.
Zack Greinke has allowed a slugging percentage of .603 (108 Total Bases / 179 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: .435 — 0 Percentile.
Zack Greinke has struck out just 11% (45/417) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
20 of Aaron Civale’s 49 strikeouts (41%) have come on cutters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 4% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Civale has a strikeout rate of just 22% (5 SO in 23 PAs) with two-strikes over the last 14 days (2 games) — 2nd lowest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 45% — third Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 31% (5/16) against Aaron Civale — 9th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 12th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 15% (23/148) against Aaron Civale on breaking pitches since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 99th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 6-22 (.214) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Royals are just 7-23 (.233) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .610.
The Royals are just 8-14 (.364) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .681.
The Royals are just 8-72 (.100) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .358.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 27-87 (.237) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Guardians are 11-30 (.268) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .146.
The Guardians are 8-102 (.073) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Guardians are 5-41 (.109) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .278 (1,849 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 29% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Royals have won just 45% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .287 (2,699 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,288 strikeouts in 7,233 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,820 strikeouts in 9,947 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 205 strikeouts in 1,135 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 532 strikeouts in 2,714 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Royals pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 149 of 2,361 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.50 (463.0 IP) at home this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Guardians pitchers have walked 61 of 901 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The longest HR allowed by the Guardians pitchers this season traveled 441.0 feet — — shortest in MLB; League Avg: 463.9
Guardians vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Gavin Williams (Guardians): Blister, Day-to-Day
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Royals): Concussion, D7
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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