- The – are favorites vs the –
- Royals starting pitcher: Alec Marsh
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Kansas City Royals () visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians () on Wednesday, July 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Royals vs Guardians Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 29-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 50-51 ATS.
Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | O | ||
| Guardians | U |
Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 77.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- MJ Melendez has hit the RBIs Under in 22 of his last 23 games (+19.50 Units / 36% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+11.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+10.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 22 away games (+10.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 22 away games (+9.95 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 21 games (+8.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- Aaron Civale has hit the Earned Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 17 games (+6.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Guardians vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Will Brennan | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
Guardians vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Guardians vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Marsh | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
| Gavin Williams | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -140 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 82 games (+9.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 57 of their last 99 games (+9.15 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.25 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+3.20 Units / 27% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 46 games at home (+15.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games (+11.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 59 games (+10.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 36 games at home (+6.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+4.55 Units / 10% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 40-63 against the Run Line (-33.7 Units / -26.79% ROI).
- 29-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -32.8 Units / -30.75% ROI
- 46-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.9 Units / -13.13% ROI
- 55-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.2 Units / 3.71% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 50-51 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -1.6% ROI).
- 50-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.6 Units / -8.91% ROI
- 41-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.2 Units / -18.95% ROI
- 56-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.6 Units / 10.49% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Alec Marsh has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to June 30th — the longest active streak is 6.
Alec Marsh has a strikeout rate of just 12% (3 SO in 25 PAs) over the past seven days (1 games) — 8th lowest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 24% — 15th Percentile.
Alec Marsh has struck out just 14% (3/22) of right-handed batters he faced over the last 14 days (2 games) — 4th lowest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 24% — eighth Percentile.
Alec Marsh had an ERA of 8.44 (5.1 IP) — 3rd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 3.63 — third Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 35% (148/417) against Carlos Rodon in 2022 — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.
Carlos Rodon had a strikeout rate of 39% (56/142) with runners in scoring position in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 35% (69/195) against Carlos Rodon in two-strike counts in 2022 — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — fourth Percentile.
21 of Carlos Rodon’s breaking pitch strikeouts were backdoor in 2022 — 3rd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 95th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 8-72 (.100) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .358.
The Royals are just 7-23 (.233) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .609.
The Royals are just 6-23 (.207) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The Royals are just 3-13 (.188) after a road win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 27-87 (.237) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Guardians are 29-70 (.293) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
The Guardians are 18-95 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Guardians are 40-29 (.580) after a road win since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .492.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 28% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 29% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .220 (2,051 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .277 (1,881 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,289 strikeouts in 7,259 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,821 strikeouts in 9,979 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 494 strikeouts in 2,675 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Royals pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals pitchers have won only 7% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 150 of 2,370 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 62 of 910 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 2.77 (247.1 IP) against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.16 (933.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.07.
Guardians vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Royals): Concussion, D7
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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