- The Guardians are -210 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles
- Guardians starting pitcher: Tanner Bibee
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Kansas City Royals (+170) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-210) on Thursday, July 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Royals vs Guardians Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 25-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 41-45 ATS.
Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -110 | O 9 -115 | +170 |
| Guardians | -1.5 -110 | U 9 -105 | -210 |
Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 76.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 23 away games (+11.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.55 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+17.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 29 games (+12.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 29 games (+11.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Strikeouts Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.60 Units / 51% ROI)
Guardians vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Guardians vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Will Brennan | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -225 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -200 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -210 |
Guardians vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Guardians vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tanner Bibee | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -140 |
| Jordan Lyles | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -145 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 83 games (+8.60 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 35 away games (+6.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.60 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 15 games (+1.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 10 away games (+0.80 Units / 8% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 70 games (+16.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 44 games (+8.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 27 games at home (+7.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+7.45 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 35 games (+4.65 Units / 11% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 33-54 against the Run Line (-30.5 Units / -28.45% ROI).
- 25-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -27.75 Units / -30.61% ROI
- 41-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.55 Units / -7.9% ROI
- 44-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -1.56% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 41-45 against the Run Line (-3.9 Units / -3.59% ROI).
- 42-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.9 Units / -9.16% ROI
- 33-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.1 Units / -22.29% ROI
- 49-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.95 Units / 13.67% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of just .024 (1 Total Bases / 42 ABs) on fastballs away this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .374 — 100th Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed an OBP of .500 (72 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .311 — first Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has an ERA of 6.68 (91.2 IP)this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.83 — first Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has an ERA of 8.02 (42.2 IP) on the road this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4.06 — first Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Bibee has walked 4 of 21 left-handed batters (19%) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 64% (16/25) against Tanner Bibee over the last 14 days (2 games) — highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting just .083 (2-for-24) against Tanner Bibee — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .231 — 98th Percentile.
Tanner Bibee has walked 9 of 56 left-handed batters (16%) over the last 30 days (5 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 7-69 (.092) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .356.
The Royals are just 6-22 (.214) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .608.
The Royals are just 6-19 (.240) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Royals are just 24-54 (.308) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 27-83 (.245) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Guardians are 5-34 (.128) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Guardians are 28-65 (.301) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .203.
The Guardians were 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 29% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Royals are batting just .200 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Royals have won just 43% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 29% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,241 strikeouts in 6,932 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 169 strikeouts in 904 PA’s (19%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have an OBP of just .303 (904 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have allowed a run 38% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Royals pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Royals pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 54 of 778 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 142 of 2,238 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua-Douglas Naylor (Guardians): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D15
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Donald Greinke (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Matthew Beaty (Royals): Concussion, D7
- Ryan Yarbrough (Royals): Head, D60
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D15
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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