- The Guardians are -185 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Daniel A. Lynch
- Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Kansas City Royals (+150) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-185) on Friday, July 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Royals vs Guardians Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 25-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 42-45 ATS.
Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -135 | O 8 -105 | +150 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +110 | U 8 -115 | -185 |
Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 75.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 21 away games (+11.55 Units / 38% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+10.60 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 games at home (+17.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 30 games (+11.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 12 games at home (+11.10 Units / 93% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.80 Units / 49% ROI)
Guardians vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -105 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -210 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +155 | 1.5 -200 |
Guardians vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Guardians vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Civale | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +100 |
| Daniel Lynch | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 84 games (+9.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 36 away games (+7.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games (+4.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 11 away games (+2.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 16 games (+0.75 Units / 5% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 71 games (+17.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 45 games (+9.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+8.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+8.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 36 games (+5.65 Units / 13% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 33-55 against the Run Line (-31.5 Units / -29.11% ROI).
- 25-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -28.75 Units / -31.37% ROI
- 41-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.75 Units / -9.04% ROI
- 45-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.5 Units / -0.52% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 42-45 against the Run Line (-2.9 Units / -2.64% ROI).
- 43-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.9 Units / -8.07% ROI
- 33-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.3 Units / -23.27% ROI
- 50-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.95 Units / 14.58% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .091 (5-for-55) against Daniel Lynch’s changeup this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .239 — 100th Percentile.
Daniel Lynch has allowed a slugging percentage of .811 (73 Total Bases / 90 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: .583 — first Percentile.
Daniel Lynch has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.2 MPH on the 148 breaking pitches put in play against him since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 87.4.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 52% (77/148) against Daniel Lynch on breaking pitches since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: 35% — 0 Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Civale has a strikeout rate of just 26% (7 SO in 27 PAs) with two-strikes — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 24% (5/21) against Aaron Civale — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 45% — fourth Percentile.
Aaron Civale has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 10.0 innings pitched — Kevin Kelly has the longest active streak at 22.0.
Aaron Civale has thrown his cutter 45% of the time (503/1,118) vs left-handed batters since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total CUT; League Avg: 18% — 97th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 7-69 (.092) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .356.
The Royals are just 6-23 (.207) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .610.
The Royals are just 25-63 (.284) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals are just 6-12 (.333) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 27-83 (.245) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Guardians are 11-26 (.297) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Guardians are 28-65 (.301) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Guardians are 18-89 (.168) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 29% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Royals are batting just .198 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .632 (1,598 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .721.
The Royals have won just 30% of games in which they have scored first on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,247 strikeouts in 6,964 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 452 strikeouts in 2,380 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .355 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals pitchers have allowed a run 38% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Royals pitchers have walked 70 of 766 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 5.28 (765.1 IP) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.30.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 142 of 2,247 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 54 of 787 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Donald Greinke (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Matthew Beaty (Royals): Concussion, D7
- Ryan Yarbrough (Royals): Head, D60
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D15
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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