- The Guardians are -185 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Brady Singer
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Kansas City Royals (+150) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-185) on Saturday, July 8, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Royals vs Guardians Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 25-64 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 43-45 ATS.
Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -135 | O 8.5 -110 | +150 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +110 | U 8.5 -110 | -185 |
Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 72.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 24 games (+13.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 22 away games (+12.55 Units / 39% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 away games (+12.10 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+14.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Strikeouts Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 30 games (+10.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 13 games at home (+10.10 Units / 78% ROI)
Guardians vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
Guardians vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Will Brennan | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
Guardians vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
Guardians vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brady Singer | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -105 |
| Gavin Williams | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 85 games (+10.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 37 away games (+8.55 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games (+5.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 12 away games (+1.05 Units / 8% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 72 games (+18.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 46 games (+10.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games at home (+7.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+7.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 37 games (+6.65 Units / 14% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 33-56 against the Run Line (-32.9 Units / -30.02% ROI).
- 25-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -29.75 Units / -32.11% ROI
- 41-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.8 Units / -10.02% ROI
- 46-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.5 Units / 0.51% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 43-45 against the Run Line (-1.7 Units / -1.53% ROI).
- 44-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.9 Units / -7.04% ROI
- 33-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.35 Units / -24.1% ROI
- 51-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.95 Units / 15.44% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 55% (80/145) against Brady Singer on non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 37% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 55% (51/92) against Brady Singer on low non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — first Percentile.
Brady Singer has an ERA of 5.52 (89.2 IP)this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.87 — fifth Percentile.
Brady Singer has allowed a slugging percentage of .478 (75 Total Bases / 157 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .393 — seventh Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gavin Williams has a strike rate of 75% (137/183) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of 43% (36/83) against Gavin Williams — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Gavin Williams has a strikeout rate of just 24% (8 SO in 33 PAs) with two-strikes — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.
Gavin Williams had a strike rate of 74% (67/91) — 4th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — 96th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 10-30 (.250) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .574.
The Royals are just 7-70 (.091) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .356.
The Royals are just 6-23 (.207) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .611.
The Royals are just 11-33 (.250) after a road win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .494.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 27-83 (.245) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Guardians are 11-26 (.297) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Guardians are 5-34 (.128) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Guardians are 28-65 (.301) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .202.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 28% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Royals have won just 39% of games in which they have scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 67%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .274 (1,627 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Royals are batting just .197 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,248 strikeouts in 6,970 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,748 strikeouts in 9,483 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .659 (2,513 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Royals have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals pitchers have allowed a run 38% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 142 of 2,256 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 54 of 796 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 2.60 (211.1 IP) against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.30.
Guardians vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Edward Olivares (Royals): Back, Day-to-Day
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Donald Greinke (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Matthew Beaty (Royals): Concussion, D7
- Ryan Yarbrough (Royals): Head, D60
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D15
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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