- The Guardians are -225 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Ryan Yarbrough
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Kansas City Royals (+185) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-225) on Sunday, July 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Royals vs Guardians Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 25-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 44-45 ATS.
Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -105 | O 8 -105 | +185 |
| Guardians | -1.5 -115 | U 8 -115 | -225 |
Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 82.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 away games (+12.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+11.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 11 games (+11.55 Units / 74% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Strikeouts Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.60 Units / 51% ROI)
- Gabriel Arias has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.35 Units / 70% ROI)
- Cal Quantrill has hit the Earned Runs Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+6.50 Units / 41% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+5.90 Units / 30% ROI)
Guardians vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1200 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -200 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Guardians vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -300 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Guardians vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +105 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | 2.5 -105 | 2.5 -120 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 38 away games (+7.50 Units / 18% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 73 games (+17.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 47 games (+11.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 38 games (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 33-57 against the Run Line (-34.15 Units / -30.81% ROI).
- 25-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -30.75 Units / -32.84% ROI
- 42-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.8 Units / -8.89% ROI
- 46-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.55 Units / -0.56% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 44-45 against the Run Line (-0.65 Units / -0.58% ROI).
- 45-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.9 Units / -6.06% ROI
- 34-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.35 Units / -22.79% ROI
- 51-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.9 Units / 14.2% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Yarbrough has an average fastball velocity of just 87.0 MPH since last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .436 (24-for-55) against Ryan Yarbrough in late innings since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: .252 — first Percentile.
Ryan Yarbrough has averaged 78.7 MPH on changeups since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: 85.5 — first Percentile.
Ryan Yarbrough has an average fastball velocity of just 86.7 MPH since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 164 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 0 Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 64% of the time (366/571) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 59% of the time (926/1,561) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — 100th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has allowed an OBP of just .253 (233 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — 92nd Percentile.
Shane Bieber has allowed an OPS of just .346 (225 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .496 — 95th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 6-12 (.333) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .685.
The Royals are just 10-30 (.250) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .574.
The Royals are just 25-64 (.281) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals are just 3-12 (.200) after a road win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .497.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 27-83 (.245) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .127.
The Guardians are 5-34 (.128) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Guardians are 11-26 (.297) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Guardians are 18-89 (.168) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 39% of games in which they have scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 67%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 28% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Royals are batting just .199 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 26% on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,253 strikeouts in 7,014 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 458 strikeouts in 2,430 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,753 strikeouts in 9,527 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals pitchers have allowed a run 38% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Royals pitchers have walked 917 of 9,679 batters (10%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 54 of 805 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 142 of 2,265 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 2.74 (220.1 IP) against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Joshua Bell (Guardians): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Peyton Battenfield (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Edward Olivares (Royals): Oblique, D10
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Donald Greinke (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Matthew Beaty (Royals): Concussion, D7
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D15
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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