- The Guardians (89-68) are -185 favorites vs the Royals (63-94)
- Royals starting pitcher: Kristofer Bubic (2-13), 5.80 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Zach Plesac (3-11), 4.39 ERA
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Kansas City Royals (+150) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-185) on Saturday, October 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Royals vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Royals are 63-94 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 83-74 ATS.
Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -140 | O 7.5 -120 | +150 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +115 | U 7.5 +100 | -185 |
Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s matchup with 66.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
Looking for a first bet offer up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Royals and all MLB games with BetMGM
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 34 away games (+19.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 52 away games (+18.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 24 away games (+15.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 away games (+13.40 Units / 53% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 away games (+13.10 Units / 50% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 31 games at home (+17.70 Units / 33% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 26 games at home (+17.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 49 games at home (+14.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.05 Units / 31% ROI)
Guardians vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Gabriel Arias | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1400 | 0.5 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Guardians vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -250 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Gabriel Arias | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
Guardians vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Gabriel Arias | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
Guardians vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Plesac | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +100 |
| Kris Bubic | 3.5 -175 | 3.5 +120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 54 away games (+20.63 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 58 of their last 103 games (+16.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 84 games (+12.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 62 away games (+12.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 31 games (+7.15 Units / 21% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 82 of their last 138 games (+25.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 75 of their last 138 games (+11.70 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+10.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 64 games at home (+9.45 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.11 Units / 27% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 78-79 against the Run Line (-14.9 Units / -7.2% ROI).
- 63-94 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.9 Units / -10.75% ROI
- 77-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.3 Units / -2.5% ROI
- 74-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.4 Units / -6.57% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 83-74 against the Run Line (+6.55 Units / 3.34% ROI).
- 89-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +20.5 Units / 10.44% ROI
- 70-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.6 Units / -9.04% ROI
- 78-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.75 Units / 0.43% ROI
Kristofer Bubic: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 31% (102/325) against Kris Bubic on pitches in the strike zone this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .370 (40-for-108) against Kris Bubic when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .260 — first Percentile.
Hitters batting in the top of the order have hit .359 against Kris Bubic this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .256 — 0 Percentile.
Kris Bubic has walked 10 of 63 batters (16%) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Zach Plesac: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zach Plesac has allowed an OBP of .447 (94 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .315 — 0 Percentile.
Zach Plesac has allowed a slugging percentage of .631 (65 Total Bases / 103 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .417 — second Percentile.
Zach Plesac has a strikeout rate of just 9% (8 SO in 94 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .230 (14-for-61) against Zach Plesac on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .337 — 96th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 3-74 (.039) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Royals are just 4-39 (.093) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.
The Royals are just 24-52 (.316) on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Royals are just 24-77 (.238) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 16-56 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Guardians are 12-59 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 14-6 (.700) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 13-9 (.591) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 32% on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .990 (2,273 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.
Royals hitters have just 636 strikeouts in 3,239 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .471 (3,018 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .506.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 768 strikeouts in 4,452 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,082 strikeouts in 5,973 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .341 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals pitchers have walked 1,167 of 12,186 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have walked 576 of 6,059 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Royals have won just 15% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 25 of 530 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 87 of 1,414 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Guardians vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
Looking for a first bet offer up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Royals and all MLB games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.