Royals vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 1

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 01, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Guardians (89-68) are -185 favorites vs the Royals (63-94)
  • Royals starting pitcher: Kristofer Bubic (2-13), 5.80 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Zach Plesac (3-11), 4.39 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSGL

The Kansas City Royals (+150) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-185) on Saturday, October 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Royals vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Royals are 63-94 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 83-74 ATS.

Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Royals+1.5 -140O 7.5 -120+150
Guardians -1.5 +115U 7.5 +100-185

Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s matchup with 66.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 34 away games (+19.15 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 52 away games (+18.85 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 24 away games (+15.80 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 24 away games (+13.40 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Kyle Isbel has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 24 away games (+13.10 Units / 50% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 31 games at home (+17.70 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 26 games at home (+17.15 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 49 games at home (+14.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.10 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.05 Units / 31% ROI)

Guardians vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Gabriel Arias 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500
Myles Straw 0.5 +1400 0.5
Oscar Gonzalez 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200

Guardians vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 1.5 +165 1.5 -250
Andres Gimenez 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Gabriel Arias 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Myles Straw 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Oscar Gonzalez 0.5 -275 0.5 +180

Guardians vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Gabriel Arias 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Myles Straw 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Oscar Gonzalez 0.5 +140 0.5 -200

Guardians vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Zach Plesac 3.5 -140 3.5 +100
Kris Bubic 3.5 -175 3.5 +120
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 54 away games (+20.63 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 58 of their last 103 games (+16.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 84 games (+12.45 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 62 away games (+12.05 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 31 games (+7.15 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 82 of their last 138 games (+25.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 75 of their last 138 games (+11.70 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+10.85 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 64 games at home (+9.45 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.11 Units / 27% ROI)

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 78-79 against the Run Line (-14.9 Units / -7.2% ROI).

  • 63-94 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.9 Units / -10.75% ROI
  • 77-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.3 Units / -2.5% ROI
  • 74-77 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.4 Units / -6.57% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 83-74 against the Run Line (+6.55 Units / 3.34% ROI).

  • 89-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +20.5 Units / 10.44% ROI
  • 70-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.6 Units / -9.04% ROI
  • 78-70 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.75 Units / 0.43% ROI

Opponents have a line drive rate of 31% (102/325) against Kris Bubic on pitches in the strike zone this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .370 (40-for-108) against Kris Bubic when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .260 — first Percentile.

Hitters batting in the top of the order have hit .359 against Kris Bubic this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .256 — 0 Percentile.

Kris Bubic has walked 10 of 63 batters (16%) in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.

Zach Plesac: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Zach Plesac has allowed an OBP of .447 (94 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .315 — 0 Percentile.

Zach Plesac has allowed a slugging percentage of .631 (65 Total Bases / 103 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 159 total IP; League Avg: .417 — second Percentile.

Zach Plesac has a strikeout rate of just 9% (8 SO in 94 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 24% — second Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .230 (14-for-61) against Zach Plesac on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: .337 — 96th Percentile.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Royals are just 3-74 (.039) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Royals are just 4-39 (.093) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.

The Royals are just 24-52 (.316) on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.

The Royals are just 24-77 (.238) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Guardians are 16-56 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Guardians are 12-59 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Guardians are 14-6 (.700) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Guardians are 13-9 (.591) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Royals have a winning percentage of just 32% on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Royals hitters have an OPS of just .990 (2,273 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.

Royals hitters have just 636 strikeouts in 3,239 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Royals hitters have an OPS of just .471 (3,018 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .506.

Guardians hitters have just 768 strikeouts in 4,452 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have just 1,082 strikeouts in 5,973 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .341 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Royals have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Royals pitchers have walked 1,167 of 12,186 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Royals pitchers have walked 576 of 6,059 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Royals have won just 15% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 25 of 530 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 87 of 1,414 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Guardians vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
  • Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.