Royals vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 3

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 03, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Guardians are -200 favorites vs the Royals
  • Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke (4-9), 3.77 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (11-11), 2.99 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSGL

The Kansas City Royals (+165) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-200) on Monday, October 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Royals vs Guardians Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Royals are 64-95 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 84-75 ATS.

Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Royals+1.5 -135O 6.5 +100+165
Guardians -1.5 +110U 6.5 -120-200

Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Monday‘s matchup with 61.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Royals and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 53 away games (+17.15 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+14.25 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+12.95 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.15 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+12.10 Units / 28% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 33 games at home (+16.65 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 28 games at home (+15.95 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+10.35 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Triston McKenzie has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+10.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+9.95 Units / 33% ROI)

Guardians vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Gabriel Arias 0.5 +750 0.5 -3000
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Myles Straw 0.5 +1450 0.5
Oscar Gonzalez 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Steven Kwan 0.5 +1250 0.5

Guardians vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Gabriel Arias 0.5 -140 0.5 +100
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Myles Straw 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Steven Kwan 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 -200 0.5 +135

Guardians vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Gabriel Arias 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Myles Straw 0.5 +325 0.5 -550
Oscar Gonzalez 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Steven Kwan 0.5 +230 0.5 -350

Guardians vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Triston McKenzie 6.5 -120 6.5 -115
Zack Greinke 2.5 -115 2.5 -120
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 56 away games (+18.03 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 105 games (+16.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 64 away games (+14.05 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 86 games (+12.35 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 33 games (+8.15 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 83 of their last 140 games (+24.75 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 76 of their last 140 games (+11.70 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+8.60 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 66 games at home (+8.40 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.11 Units / 25% ROI)

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 79-80 against the Run Line (-15 Units / -7.16% ROI).

  • 64-95 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.35 Units / -10.29% ROI
  • 79-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -1.32% ROI
  • 74-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.65 Units / -7.76% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 84-75 against the Run Line (+6.55 Units / 3.31% ROI).

  • 90-69 when betting on the Moneyline for +19.8 Units / 9.88% ROI
  • 72-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.6 Units / -7.78% ROI
  • 78-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -0.85% ROI

Zack Greinke has struck out just 4% (1/23) of left-handed batters he faced — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (117/359) against Zack Greinke on fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (35/103) against Zack Greinke on inside fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.

Zack Greinke has struck out just 13% (66/503) of left-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.

Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (58/185) against Triston McKenzie in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (160/487) against Triston McKenzie this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.

Triston McKenzie has thrown elevated pitches 46% of the time (253/548) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 97th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 42 ABs ending on a two-strike curveball from Triston McKenzie. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Royals are just 25-53 (.321) on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .470.

The Royals are just 4-40 (.091) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Royals are just 9-66 (.120) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.

The Royals are just 49-6 (.891) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .117.

The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Guardians are 14-6 (.700) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Guardians are 51-7 (.879) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

Royals hitters have an OPS of just .992 (2,296 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.

The Royals have a winning percentage of just 32% on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Royals hitters have just 639 strikeouts in 3,253 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Royals hitters are slugging just .395 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .449.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians hitters have just 1,104 strikeouts in 6,045 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have 90 extra-base hits out of 332 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Guardians hitters have just 781 strikeouts in 4,501 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Royals have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Royals pitchers have walked 246 of 2,816 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The average home run distance against the Royals pitchers since the start of last season is 405.6 feet — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 399.3

Guardians pitchers have walked 88 of 1,432 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 4 of 122 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.55 (710.0 IP) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.

Guardians vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
  • Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Salvador Perez (Royals): Thumb, Day-to-Day

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.