- The Guardians are -200 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke (4-9), 3.77 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (11-11), 2.99 ERA
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Kansas City Royals (+165) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-200) on Monday, October 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Royals vs Guardians Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Royals are 64-95 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 84-75 ATS.
Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -135 | O 6.5 +100 | +165 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +110 | U 6.5 -120 | -200 |
Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Monday‘s matchup with 61.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 53 away games (+17.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+14.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+12.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+12.10 Units / 28% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 33 games at home (+16.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 28 games at home (+15.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+10.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Triston McKenzie has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+10.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+9.95 Units / 33% ROI)
Guardians vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Arias | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1450 | 0.5 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1250 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Arias | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
Guardians vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Arias | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Oscar Gonzalez | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Guardians vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Triston McKenzie | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -115 |
| Zack Greinke | 2.5 -115 | 2.5 -120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 56 away games (+18.03 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 105 games (+16.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 64 away games (+14.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 50 of their last 86 games (+12.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 33 games (+8.15 Units / 22% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 83 of their last 140 games (+24.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 76 of their last 140 games (+11.70 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+8.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 34 of their last 66 games at home (+8.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.11 Units / 25% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 79-80 against the Run Line (-15 Units / -7.16% ROI).
- 64-95 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.35 Units / -10.29% ROI
- 79-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -1.32% ROI
- 74-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.65 Units / -7.76% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 84-75 against the Run Line (+6.55 Units / 3.31% ROI).
- 90-69 when betting on the Moneyline for +19.8 Units / 9.88% ROI
- 72-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.6 Units / -7.78% ROI
- 78-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.5 Units / -0.85% ROI
Donald Greinke: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Greinke has struck out just 4% (1/23) of left-handed batters he faced — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (117/359) against Zack Greinke on fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 34% (35/103) against Zack Greinke on inside fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 0 Percentile.
Zack Greinke has struck out just 13% (66/503) of left-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (58/185) against Triston McKenzie in two-strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (160/487) against Triston McKenzie this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has thrown elevated pitches 46% of the time (253/548) when behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 97th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have no hits in their last 42 ABs ending on a two-strike curveball from Triston McKenzie. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 25-53 (.321) on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Royals are just 4-40 (.091) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Royals are just 9-66 (.120) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are just 49-6 (.891) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .117.
The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Guardians are 14-6 (.700) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are 51-7 (.879) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .992 (2,296 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 32% on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Royals hitters have just 639 strikeouts in 3,253 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals hitters are slugging just .395 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,104 strikeouts in 6,045 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have 90 extra-base hits out of 332 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Guardians hitters have just 781 strikeouts in 4,501 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have walked 246 of 2,816 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The average home run distance against the Royals pitchers since the start of last season is 405.6 feet — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 88 of 1,432 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 4 of 122 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.55 (710.0 IP) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Guardians vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Salvador Perez (Royals): Thumb, Day-to-Day
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