Royals vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 4

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 04, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Guardians (90-70) are -185 favorites vs the Royals (65-95)
  • Royals starting pitcher: Daniel A. Lynch (4-12), 4.96 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill (14-5), 3.42 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSGL

The Kansas City Royals (+150) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-185) on Tuesday, October 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Royals vs Guardians Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Royals are 65-95 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 84-76 ATS.

Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Royals+1.5 -140O 7 +100+150
Guardians -1.5 +115U 7 -120-185

Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 61.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Royals and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 53 away games (+17.15 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+14.25 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+12.95 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.15 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+12.10 Units / 28% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 33 games at home (+16.65 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 28 games at home (+15.95 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+10.35 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Triston McKenzie has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+10.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+9.95 Units / 33% ROI)

Guardians vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Gabriel Arias 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Myles Straw 0.5 +1400 0.5

Guardians vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 1.5 +165 1.5 -250
Andres Gimenez 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Gabriel Arias 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Myles Straw 0.5 -160 0.5 +110

Guardians vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Gabriel Arias 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Myles Straw 0.5 +300 0.5 -550

Guardians vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cal Quantrill 4.5 +120 4.5 -175
Daniel Lynch 4.5 +100 4.5 -145
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 65 away games (+13.05 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 53% ROI)

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 80-80 against the Run Line (-14 Units / -6.64% ROI).

  • 65-95 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.65 Units / -9.23% ROI
  • 80-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -0.74% ROI
  • 74-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.65 Units / -8.28% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 84-76 against the Run Line (+5.55 Units / 2.79% ROI).

  • 90-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.8 Units / 8.79% ROI
  • 73-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.6 Units / -7.16% ROI
  • 78-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -1.42% ROI

The average home run distance against Daniel Lynch since the start of last season is 412.9 feet — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 398.9

Daniel Lynch has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.3 MPH this season (383 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 88.6

Daniel Lynch has allowed an OPS of .648 (475 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: .499 — second Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (45/140) against Daniel Lynch with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.

Cal Quantrill: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Cal Quantrill has a strike rate of just 62% (517/839) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — sixth Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (253/1,380) against Cal Quantrill this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 15% (114/767) against Cal Quantrill this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.

Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 17% (124 SO in 751 PAs) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Royals are just 4-40 (.091) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Royals are just 3-75 (.038) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Royals are just 9-66 (.120) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.

The Royals are just 24-77 (.238) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Guardians are 64-3 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Guardians are 61-3 (.953) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .882.

Royals hitters have just 640 strikeouts in 3,261 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Royals hitters are slugging just .243 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.

Royals hitters have drawn 238 walks in 3,261 PA’s (7%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Royals hitters have just 83 strikeouts in 494 PA’s (17%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Guardians hitters have just 787 strikeouts in 4,537 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .341 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

Guardians hitters have just 1,111 strikeouts in 6,086 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Royals have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Royals have won just 15% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Royals pitchers have walked 1,175 of 12,299 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 25 of 491 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 434 of 5,921 batters (7%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 4 of 123 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Guardians vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
  • Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Salvador Perez (Royals): Thumb, Day-to-Day

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.