- The Guardians (90-70) are -185 favorites vs the Royals (65-95)
- Royals starting pitcher: Daniel A. Lynch (4-12), 4.96 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Cal Quantrill (14-5), 3.42 ERA
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Kansas City Royals (+150) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-185) on Tuesday, October 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Royals vs Guardians Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Royals are 65-95 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 84-76 ATS.
Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -140 | O 7 +100 | +150 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +115 | U 7 -120 | -185 |
Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 61.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 53 away games (+17.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+14.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+12.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+12.10 Units / 28% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 33 games at home (+16.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 28 games at home (+15.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+10.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Triston McKenzie has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+10.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+9.95 Units / 33% ROI)
Guardians vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Gabriel Arias | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1400 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -250 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Gabriel Arias | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +110 |
Guardians vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Gabriel Arias | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -550 |
Guardians vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Quantrill | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -175 |
| Daniel Lynch | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -145 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 65 away games (+13.05 Units / 17% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 53% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 80-80 against the Run Line (-14 Units / -6.64% ROI).
- 65-95 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.65 Units / -9.23% ROI
- 80-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -0.74% ROI
- 74-80 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.65 Units / -8.28% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 84-76 against the Run Line (+5.55 Units / 2.79% ROI).
- 90-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.8 Units / 8.79% ROI
- 73-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.6 Units / -7.16% ROI
- 78-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -1.42% ROI
Daniel A. Lynch: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Daniel Lynch since the start of last season is 412.9 feet — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 398.9
Daniel Lynch has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.3 MPH this season (383 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 88.6
Daniel Lynch has allowed an OPS of .648 (475 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: .499 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (45/140) against Daniel Lynch with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Cal Quantrill: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cal Quantrill has a strike rate of just 62% (517/839) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (253/1,380) against Cal Quantrill this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — sixth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 15% (114/767) against Cal Quantrill this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Cal Quantrill has a strikeout rate of just 17% (124 SO in 751 PAs) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 4-40 (.091) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Royals are just 3-75 (.038) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Royals are just 9-66 (.120) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are just 24-77 (.238) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 64-3 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Guardians are 61-3 (.953) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .882.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 640 strikeouts in 3,261 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals hitters are slugging just .243 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Royals hitters have drawn 238 walks in 3,261 PA’s (7%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Royals hitters have just 83 strikeouts in 494 PA’s (17%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 787 strikeouts in 4,537 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .341 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Guardians hitters have just 1,111 strikeouts in 6,086 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Royals have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Royals have won just 15% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals pitchers have walked 1,175 of 12,299 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 25 of 491 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 434 of 5,921 batters (7%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 4 of 123 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Salvador Perez (Royals): Thumb, Day-to-Day
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