Royals vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 5

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 05, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Guardians (91-70) are -175 favorites vs the Royals (65-96)
  • Royals starting pitcher: Jonathan Heasley (4-9), 5.00 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale (4-6), 5.04 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSGL

The Kansas City Royals (+145) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-175) on Wednesday, October 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Royals vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Royals are 65-96 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 85-76 ATS.

Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Royals+1.5 -145O 7.5 -105+145
Guardians -1.5 +120U 7.5 -115-175

Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 61.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Royals and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 53 away games (+17.15 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+14.25 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+12.95 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.15 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+12.10 Units / 28% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 33 games at home (+16.65 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 28 games at home (+15.95 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+10.35 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Triston McKenzie has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+10.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+9.95 Units / 33% ROI)

Guardians vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
Josh Naylor 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Luke Maile 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000

Guardians vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 1.5 +150 1.5 -225
Andres Gimenez 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Josh Naylor 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Luke Maile 0.5 -140 0.5 +100

Guardians vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Josh Naylor 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Luke Maile 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

Guardians vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Civale 4.5 -125 4.5 -110
Jon Heasley 2.5 -150 2.5 +105
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 66 away games (+12.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.90 Units / 35% ROI)

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 80-81 against the Run Line (-15.35 Units / -7.23% ROI).

  • 65-96 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.65 Units / -9.76% ROI
  • 81-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.3 Units / -0.17% ROI
  • 74-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.7 Units / -8.83% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 85-76 against the Run Line (+6.7 Units / 3.35% ROI).

  • 91-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +18.8 Units / 9.2% ROI
  • 74-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.6 Units / -6.55% ROI
  • 78-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.55 Units / -2% ROI

Jon Heasley has a strike rate of just 57% (513/897) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.

Jon Heasley has a strikeout rate of just 15% (66 SO in 439 PAs) this season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 22% — fifth Percentile.

Jon Heasley has a strikeout rate of just 10% (10 SO in 95 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 21% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 24% (211/871) against Jon Heasley this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 30% — third Percentile.

Aaron Civale: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Aaron Civale has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last five games dating back to August 23rd — Nick Lodolo has the longest active streak at 8.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (43/134) against Aaron Civale on inside fastballs since the start of 2020 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 190 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (31/98) against Aaron Civale on inside fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (41/126) against Aaron Civale with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Royals are just 3-76 (.038) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Royals are just 4-40 (.091) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Royals are just 26-54 (.325) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.

The Royals are just 65-81 (.445) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Guardians are 62-3 (.954) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.

The Guardians are 65-3 (.956) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Royals have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

Royals hitters have just 642 strikeouts in 3,264 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Royals hitters are slugging just .369 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .445.

Royals hitters have just 743 strikeouts in 3,725 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Guardians hitters have just 790 strikeouts in 4,547 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have 93 extra-base hits out of 341 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians hitters have put 40% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Royals have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Royals pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 60% of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.

Royals pitchers have walked 246 of 2,834 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 24 of 480 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 4 of 121 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 434 of 5,955 batters (7%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Guardians vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
  • Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
  • Salvador Perez (Royals): Thumb, Day-to-Day

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Royals and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.