- The Guardians (91-70) are -175 favorites vs the Royals (65-96)
- Royals starting pitcher: Jonathan Heasley (4-9), 5.00 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale (4-6), 5.04 ERA
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Kansas City Royals (+145) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-175) on Wednesday, October 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Royals vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Royals are 65-96 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 85-76 ATS.
Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -145 | O 7.5 -105 | +145 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +120 | U 7.5 -115 | -175 |
Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 61.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 53 away games (+17.15 Units / 22% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+14.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+12.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- Brady Singer has hit the Strikeouts Over in 18 of his last 24 games (+12.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+12.10 Units / 28% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 33 games at home (+16.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 24 of his last 28 games at home (+15.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 29 games (+10.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Triston McKenzie has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 23 games (+10.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+9.95 Units / 33% ROI)
Guardians vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Luke Maile | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
Guardians vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -225 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Luke Maile | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
Guardians vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Luke Maile | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Guardians vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Civale | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -110 |
| Jon Heasley | 2.5 -150 | 2.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 66 away games (+12.05 Units / 16% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.90 Units / 35% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 80-81 against the Run Line (-15.35 Units / -7.23% ROI).
- 65-96 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.65 Units / -9.76% ROI
- 81-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.3 Units / -0.17% ROI
- 74-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.7 Units / -8.83% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 85-76 against the Run Line (+6.7 Units / 3.35% ROI).
- 91-70 when betting on the Moneyline for +18.8 Units / 9.2% ROI
- 74-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.6 Units / -6.55% ROI
- 78-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.55 Units / -2% ROI
Jonathan Heasley: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jon Heasley has a strike rate of just 57% (513/897) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Jon Heasley has a strikeout rate of just 15% (66 SO in 439 PAs) this season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 22% — fifth Percentile.
Jon Heasley has a strikeout rate of just 10% (10 SO in 95 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 21% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 24% (211/871) against Jon Heasley this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 30% — third Percentile.
Aaron Civale: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Civale has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last five games dating back to August 23rd — Nick Lodolo has the longest active streak at 8.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (43/134) against Aaron Civale on inside fastballs since the start of 2020 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 190 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (31/98) against Aaron Civale on inside fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% (41/126) against Aaron Civale with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Royals are just 3-76 (.038) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Royals are just 4-40 (.091) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Royals are just 26-54 (.325) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Royals are just 65-81 (.445) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Guardians are 16-57 (.219) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Guardians are 12-60 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Guardians are 62-3 (.954) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
The Guardians are 65-3 (.956) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Royals hitters have just 642 strikeouts in 3,264 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals hitters are slugging just .369 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Royals hitters have just 743 strikeouts in 3,725 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 790 strikeouts in 4,547 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have 93 extra-base hits out of 341 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have put 40% of their swings in play this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Royals have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 60% of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Royals pitchers have walked 246 of 2,834 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 24 of 480 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 4 of 121 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 434 of 5,955 batters (7%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
- Salvador Perez (Royals): Thumb, Day-to-Day
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