Royals vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 30

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 30, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Guardians (88-68) are -135 favorites vs the Royals (63-93)
  • Royals starting pitcher: Brady Singer (10-4), 2.98 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Aaron Civale (3-6), 5.18 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSGL

The Kansas City Royals (+115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-135) on Friday, September 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Royals vs Guardians Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Royals are 63-93 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 82-74 ATS.

Royals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Royals+1.5 -190O 7 -120+115
Guardians -1.5 +155U 7 +100-135

Royals vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Friday‘s matchup with 54.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Royals and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 away games (+18.50 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 23 away games (+17.80 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 48 away games (+14.85 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 48 games (+14.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 42 games (+14.60 Units / 18% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 28 games at home (+17.75 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 23 games at home (+14.15 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 45 games at home (+13.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Shane Bieber has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.95 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 39 of his last 71 games (+11.10 Units / 15% ROI)

Guardians vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Josh Naylor 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Steven Kwan 0.5 +1100 0.5
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Drew Waters 0.5 +900 0.5 -10000

Guardians vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Josh Naylor 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Drew Waters 0.5 -130 0.5 -110
Hunter Dozier 0.5 -165 0.5 +120

Guardians vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Josh Naylor 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Steven Kwan 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Bobby Witt Jr. 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Drew Waters 0.5 +290 0.5 -500

Guardians vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Civale 4.5 -165 4.5 +115
Brady Singer 4.5 -125 4.5 -115
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 36 of their last 61 away games (+11.05 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.85 Units / 26% ROI)

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 78-78 against the Run Line (-13.1 Units / -6.38% ROI).

  • 63-93 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.9 Units / -10.21% ROI
  • 76-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.3 Units / -3.09% ROI
  • 74-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.2 Units / -5.92% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 82-74 against the Run Line (+4.95 Units / 2.54% ROI).

  • 88-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +19.5 Units / 10% ROI
  • 69-78 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.6 Units / -9.68% ROI
  • 78-69 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.95 Units / 1.13% ROI

Brady Singer has thrown his slider 36% of the time (915/2,520) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total SL; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 24% (282/1,184) against Brady Singer on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 31% — second Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 54% (121/226) against Brady Singer this season — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 93rd Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 60% of Brady Singer’s pitches in the zone (1,451/2,398) since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 67% — second Percentile.

Aaron Civale: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Aaron Civale has a strike rate of just 55% (703/1,272) when ahead in the count since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 56% of Aaron Civale’s pitches (566/1,018) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 61% — seventh Percentile.

Aaron Civale has a strike rate of just 60% (615/1,018) in two strike counts since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (30/95) against Aaron Civale on inside fastballs since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 158 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Royals are just 24-51 (.320) on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .472.

The Royals are just 4-39 (.093) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.

The Royals are just 3-73 (.039) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Royals are just 9-64 (.123) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Guardians are 16-56 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Guardians are 12-59 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Guardians are 19-2 (.905) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .803.

The Guardians are 13-9 (.591) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Royals hitters are slugging just .367 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .446.

Royals hitters have an OPS of just .992 (2,267 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.

Royals hitters have just 636 strikeouts in 3,239 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals hitters are slugging just .242 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.

Guardians hitters have just 759 strikeouts in 4,420 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Guardians hitters have 89 extra-base hits out of 326 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Guardians hitters have just 1,071 strikeouts in 5,938 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals pitchers have walked 575 of 6,024 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Royals have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Royals pitchers have walked 124 of 1,369 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 87 of 1,405 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 35% of their games on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 25 of 535 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (14 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Guardians vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
  • Zach Plesac (Guardians): Hand, D15
  • Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
  • Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.