- The Mariners are -130 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals vs Mariners Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Royals / Mariners TV Channel: RTNW | FDKC
The Kansas City Royals (-102) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-118) on Thursday, July 3, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Seattle, WA, WA.
This season, the Royals are 40-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 37-48 ATS.
Royals vs Mariners Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Seth Lugo 5-5, 2.74 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Bryan Woo 7-4, 2.93 ERA
Royals vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | -1.5 +165 | O 7.5 -110 | -102 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -200 | U 7.5 -110 | -118 |
Royals vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 58.1% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Royals vs Mariners and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+15.75 Units / 63% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+15.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.25 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jac Caglianone has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+11.85 Units / 118% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.75 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+12.70 Units / 317% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.30 Units / 39% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Walks Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+9.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Cal Raleigh has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+9.10 Units / 26% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 61 of their last 87 games (+33.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 31 away games (+17.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 79 games (+17.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 53 of their last 86 games (+16.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 30 away games (+14.25 Units / 43% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 74 games (+13.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 45 of their last 80 games (+6.65 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+5.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 33 games at home (+0.95 Units / 2% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 45-42 against the Run Line (-8.5 Units / -6.83% ROI).
- 40-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -8 Units / -7.62% ROI
- 34-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.57 Units / -23.73% ROI
- 52-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.65 Units / 15.22% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 37-48 against the Run Line (-12.2 Units / -11.5% ROI).
- 45-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.2 Units / -5.48% ROI
- 47-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.65 Units / 9.19% ROI
- 35-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -16.87 Units / -17.73% ROI
Mariners vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -285 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Dominic Canzone (SEA) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
Mariners vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jonathan India (KC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
Mariners vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
| Jorge Polanco (SEA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -235 |
Mariners vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Evans (SEA) | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -105 |
| Seth Lugo (KC) | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -120 |
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .184 (9-for-49) against Seth Lugo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .337 — 100th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has a first-pitch in-zone of 66% (235/356) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 56% — 98th Percentile.
Seth Lugo has a strikeout rate of just 24% (23 SO in 96 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — seventh Percentile.
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (119/356) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 97th Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bryan Woo has thrown fastballs 75% of the time (528/702) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Bryan Woo has thrown 62% of his pitches in the strike zone (148/239) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Bryan Woo has allowed a slugging percentage of just .125 (14 Total Bases / 112 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .350 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .089 (10-for-112) against Bryan Woo’s elevated fastball this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .211 — 100th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are 9-1 (.900) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Royals are 36-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .956.
The Royals are just 2-37 (.051) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .093.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Mariners are 108-2 (.982) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mariners are 4-34 (.105) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .044.
The Mariners are 90-12 (.882) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Mariners are 33-1 (.971) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .906.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 6% of their PA’s against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals hitters have struck out in just 19% of their PA’s this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have put 42% of their swings in play with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Royals hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .225 against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Mariners batted just .214 at home in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Mariners are batting just .218 at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mariners hitters have an OBP of .343 (1,819 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 3.54 (371.0 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.25.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 3.50 (1070.1 IP) on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 3.49 (773.2 IP) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.07.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers walked 76 of 1,441 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners pitchers allowed an OBP of just .251 (1,441 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .305.
Mariners pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 30% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
More MLB Reading:
Bet now on Royals vs Mariners and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
