- The Marlins are -160 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Carlos Hernández
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The Kansas City Royals (+135) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-160) on Monday, June 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Royals vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 18-41 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 26-34 ATS.
Royals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -155 | O 7.5 -105 | +135 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -115 | -160 |
Royals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 62.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Pratto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+11.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.25 Units / 41% ROI)
- Nick Pratto has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+8.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 43 games (+8.75 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+11.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.15 Units / 40% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+9.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+9.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+8.95 Units / 39% ROI)
Marlins vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Marlins vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
Marlins vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jonathan Davis | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Marlins vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Braxton Garrett | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -125 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 38 games (+9.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games (+6.65 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 55 games (+6.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+5.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+2.75 Units / 28% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 27 games (+9.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 27 games (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 49 games (+7.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 30 games at home (+5.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.35 Units / 36% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 23-36 against the Run Line (-17.8 Units / -24.88% ROI).
- 18-41 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.7 Units / -29.94% ROI
- 25-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.2 Units / -15.74% ROI
- 32-25 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.3 Units / 6.62% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 26-34 against the Run Line (-15.65 Units / -19.48% ROI).
- 32-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.1 Units / 5.63% ROI
- 27-31 when betting on the total runs Over for -7 Units / -10.56% ROI
- 31-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.55 Units / 2.36% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .346 (65-for-188) against Carlos Hernandez since last season — highest among in AL; League Avg: .225 — first Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .346 (65-for-188) against Carlos Hernandez since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .228 — first Percentile.
Carlos Hernandez has allowed an OBP of .407 (216 PA’s) against right-handed batters since last season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .302 — first Percentile.
Carlos Hernandez has an ERA of 6.51 (84.1 IP)since last season — highest among in AL; League Avg: 3.38 — first Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .417 (15-for-36) against Braxton Garrett when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: .264 — fourth Percentile.
Division opponents are hitting .411 (30-for-73) against Braxton Garrett this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: .246 — first Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has averaged 89.3 MPH on fastballs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — fourth Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has allowed three-ball counts to 11% of batters they faced (19/176 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 22 total IP; League Avg: 19% — 98th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Royals are just 5-61 (.076) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .350.
The Royals are just 18-41 (.305) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals are just 1-20 (.048) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .384.
The Royals are just 5-12 (.294) after a win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Marlins are just 10-51 (.164) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .302.
The Marlins are just 71-18 (.798) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.
The Marlins are 12-7 (.632) after a home win this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .538.
The Marlins are 9-103 (.080) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 28% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .282 (992 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .285 (1,577 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .296 (2,181 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Marlins are batting .426 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .294 (3,579 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .295 (1,883 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 10% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Royals have won just 6% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Royals have won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
- Kansas City Royals – No Injuries Reported
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