• The Mets are -145 favorites vs the Royals
• Royals vs Mets Over / Under today: 9 Runs
• Royals / Mets TV Channel: RYTV | SNY

The Kansas City Royals (+118) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-145) on July 9, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 pm in Flushing, Queens, NY.

This season, the Royals are 38-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 38-53 ATS.

Royals vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:

• Royals starting pitcher: Michael Wacha 5-6, 3.52 ERA
• Mets starting pitcher: Sean Manaea 1-4, 5.17 ERA

Royals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Royals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 54.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:

• Tyler Tolbert has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+20.50 Units / 512% ROI)
• Carter Jensen has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 25 games (+19.15 Units / 39% ROI)
• Carter Jensen has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.60 Units / 43% ROI)
• Carter Jensen has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+9.75 Units / 48% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+9.20 Units / 33% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• A.J. Ewing has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games at home (+27.40 Units / 304% ROI)
• Carson Benge has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.70 Units / 37% ROI)
• Bo Bichette has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+8.75 Units / 44% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor has hit the Walks Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+8.55 Units / 16% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+8.50 Units / 34% ROI)

Royals Best Bets Today:

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 away games (+7.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.25 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 19 away games (+3.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 away games (+3.30 Units / 17% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.85 Units / 44% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games at home (+9.25 Units / 28% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+6.15 Units / 27% ROI)
• The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 19 games at home (+4.00 Units / 18% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.70 Units / 11% ROI)

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Royals are 40-50 against the Run Line (-22.85 Units / -17.63% ROI).

• 38-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.05 Units / -18.23% ROI
• 45-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.45 Units / -6.3% ROI
• 47-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -2.15% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 38-53 against the Run Line (-14.3 Units / -12.95% ROI).

• 39-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -29.4 Units / -24.69% ROI
• 43-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.75 Units / -3.65% ROI
• 42-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.75 Units / -5.64% ROI

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Royals are just 30-6 (.833) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .947.

The Royals are just 18-36 (.333) after a loss this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.

The Royals are just 3-39 (.071) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .137.

The Royals are just 35-45 (.438) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Mets are just 34-46 (.425) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

The Mets are just 11-49 (.183) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.

The Mets are 19-7 (.731) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .632.

The Mets are just 5-9 (.357) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Royals Hitting Stats & Trends

The Royals have a winning percentage of just 37% on the road this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

Royals hitters are slugging just .228 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB.

Royals hitters are slugging just .182 on pitches out of the zone this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

The Royals are batting .262 at home this season — 5th best in MLB.

Mets Hitting Stats & Trends

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .630 (1,086 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .684 (3,488 PA’s) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OBP of just .303 (3,488 PA’s) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OBP of just .294 (1,805 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Royals Pitching Stats & Trends

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Royals pitchers have walked 10% of batters this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in late innings this season — lowest in MLB.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets Pitching Stats & Trends

The Mets have won just 10% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 67% of their games at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB.

Mets pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 48 double plays in 654 opportunities (7%) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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