- The Padres are -225 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Brad Keller
- Padres starting pitcher: Michael Wacha
- Watch the game on BSSD
The Kansas City Royals (+180) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-225) on Monday, May 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Royals vs Padres Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 12-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 20-21 ATS.
Royals vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -115 | O 9 -110 | +180 |
| Padres | -1.5 -105 | U 9 -110 | -225 |
Royals vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Pratto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+13.85 Units / 66% ROI)
- Nick Pratto has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+11.05 Units / 74% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+10.60 Units / 66% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 34 games (+10.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.75 Units / 48% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 41 games (+12.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+11.60 Units / 26% ROI)
- Rougned Odor has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+8.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+7.70 Units / 32% ROI)
Padres vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Nate Eaton | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
Padres vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -125 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Nate Eaton | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
Padres vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Nate Eaton | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Matt Duffy | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
Padres vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Wacha | 4.5 -115 | 4.5 -115 |
| Brad Keller | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -125 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.15 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 away games (+3.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.20 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 away games (+2.75 Units / 22% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 34 games (+15.30 Units / 42% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 31 games (+12.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+4.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.40 Units / 21% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 16-26 against the Run Line (-13.95 Units / -26.96% ROI).
- 12-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.1 Units / -34.79% ROI
- 20-20 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.1 Units / -4.53% ROI
- 20-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -2 Units / -4.35% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 20-21 against the Run Line (-6.35 Units / -11.44% ROI).
- 19-22 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.45 Units / -16.55% ROI
- 13-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.35 Units / -35.39% ROI
- 26-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.05 Units / 27.23% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brad Keller has walked 16 of 83 right-handed batters (19%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Brad Keller has a strike rate of just 56% (191/344) against right-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Brad Keller has walked 32 of 178 batters (18%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Brad Keller has allowed three-ball counts to 33% of batters they faced (27/83 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — second Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 48% of the time (380/797) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total CH; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 13% (6/47) against Michael Wacha with two-strikes this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 36% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 17% (130/750) against Michael Wacha since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 25% (10/40) against Michael Wacha this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 15 total IP; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Royals are just 5-55 (.083) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .350.
The Royals are just 32-68 (.320) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Royals are just 4-105 (.037) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Royals are just 12-30 (.286) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Padres are just 0-17 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Padres are just 4-76 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .090.
The Padres are 7-1 (.875) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
The Padres are 21-31 (.404) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .273.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters are slugging .429 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 16% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .291 (1,159 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 26% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .200 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Padres are batting just .198 with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Padres hitters have an OPS of just .638 (749 PA’s) on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Padres are batting just .208 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Royals have won just 11% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Royals pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Royals pitchers have walked 739 of 7,858 batters (9%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Padres pitchers have a strike rate of just 62% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
The Padres pitchers have allowed the 3rd hardest ball in play hit (113.5 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 115.3).
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (1,011 batted balls) this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Padres vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D15
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- José Azocar (Padres): Elbow Inflammation, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
- Kyle Isbel (Royals): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Lopez (Royals): Appendicitis, D10
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Ryan Yarbrough (Royals): Head, D15
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Drew Waters (Royals): Oblique, D10
- Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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