- The Padres are -200 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Brady Singer
- Padres starting pitcher: Jacob Lugo
- Watch the game on BSSD
The Kansas City Royals (+165) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-200) on Tuesday, May 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Royals vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 12-31 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 21-21 ATS.
Royals vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -120 | O 8.5 -115 | +165 |
| Padres | -1.5 +100 | U 8.5 -105 | -200 |
Royals vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Pratto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+12.15 Units / 54% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+10.50 Units / 95% ROI)
- Nick Pratto has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 16 games (+10.05 Units / 63% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.75 Units / 48% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+9.75 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+13.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+12.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Rougned Odor has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+8.70 Units / 35% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+8.50 Units / 21% ROI)
Padres vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Hunter Dozier | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Padres vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -120 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Hunter Dozier | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
Padres vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
| Austin Nola | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jackie Bradley Jr. | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Hunter Dozier | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
Padres vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seth Lugo | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Brady Singer | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 away games (+4.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+2.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.05 Units / 29% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 35 games (+16.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 32 games (+13.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.80 Units / 43% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.40 Units / 27% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 16-27 against the Run Line (-15 Units / -28.41% ROI).
- 12-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.1 Units / -36.26% ROI
- 20-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.3 Units / -6.93% ROI
- 21-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -1 Units / -2.13% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 21-21 against the Run Line (-5.35 Units / -9.44% ROI).
- 20-22 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.45 Units / -14.2% ROI
- 13-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.55 Units / -37.03% ROI
- 27-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.05 Units / 28.84% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brady Singer has an ERA of 7.71 (39.2 IP)this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.91 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (8/55) against Brady Singer on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — fifth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (8/55) against Brady Singer on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Brady Singer has allowed an OPS of .914 (180 PA’s) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .707 — third Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 47% of the time (151/324) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 97th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of just 9% (6/65) against Seth Lugo when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 19% (83/443) against Seth Lugo since last season — tied for 6th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 29% — seventh Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of just 14% (22/159) against Seth Lugo when he’s behind in the count since last season — 3rd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Royals are just 5-56 (.082) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
The Royals are just 8-12 (.400) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .734.
The Royals are just 1-15 (.062) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .392.
The Royals are just 32-69 (.317) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .470.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Padres are just 0-17 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
The Padres are 15-2 (.882) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .793.
The Padres are 21-31 (.404) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Padres are just 4-76 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .089.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 16% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Royals hitters are slugging just .388 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .444.
Royals hitters have put just 33% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 33% on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
The Padres are batting just .202 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Padres hitters have drawn 542 walks in 5,416 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Padres are batting just .208 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .258.
The Padres are batting just .198 with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have walked 749 of 7,897 batters (10%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Royals have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Royals have won just 11% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have an ERA of 2.36 (107.0 IP) over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.19.
The Padres pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games on the road since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Padres pitchers have won 37% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 481.0 feet — — tied for 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 454.1
Padres vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Manuel Machado (Padres): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Adrian Morejon (Padres): Elbow, D60
- José Azocar (Padres): Elbow Inflammation, D10
- David Dahl (Padres): Quad, D10
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Nabil Crismatt (Padres): Hip Strain, D15
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D10
- Kyle Isbel (Royals): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Lopez (Royals): Appendicitis, D10
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Ryan Yarbrough (Royals): Head, D15
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Drew Waters (Royals): Oblique, D10
- Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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