- The Rangers are -130 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles, 2.25 ERA
- Rangers starting pitcher: Dane Dunning, 6.48 ERA
The Kansas City Royals (+110) visit Surprise Stadium to take on the Texas Rangers (-130) on Wednesday, March 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Surprise.
The Rangers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Royals vs Rangers Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Royals are 12-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 6-7 ATS.
Royals vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -175 | O 11 -120 | +110 |
| Rangers | -1.5 +145 | U 11 +100 | -130 |
Royals vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Wednesday‘s Spring Training matchup with 59.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Singles Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Drew Waters has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Eli White has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Brad Miller has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Eli White has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 games (+2.20 Units / 107% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Ezequiel Duran has hit the Runs Over in 1 of his last 2 games at home (+1.10 Units / 55% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 59 away games (+16.93 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 108 games (+15.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 40 of their last 67 away games (+13.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 51 of their last 89 games (+10.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 63 games (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
Rangers Best Bets Today:
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+11.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 151 games (+9.55 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games at home (+2.80 Units / 21% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 11-2 against the Run Line (+10.15 Units / 57.18% ROI).
- 12-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.5 Units / 77.44% ROI
- 9-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.75 Units / 39.66% ROI
- 3-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.6 Units / -46.64% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Rangers have gone 6-7 against the Run Line (-1.35 Units / -8.01% ROI).
- 5-8 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.95 Units / -25.73% ROI
- 9-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.55 Units / 38.54% ROI
- 3-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.75 Units / -47.04% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Lyles allowed a slugging percentage of .417 (151 Total Bases / 362 ABs) with two-strikes last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — second Percentile.
Opponents batted .243 (88-for-362) against Jordan Lyles with two-strikes last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .156 — second Percentile.
Jordan Lyles allowed a slugging percentage of .417 (151 Total Bases / 362 ABs) with two-strikes last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .264 — 0 Percentile.
Jordan Lyles allowed 15 home runs with two-strikes last season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Dane Dunning had a strike rate of just 54% (384/708) on sliders last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Dane Dunning has located his fastballs down 49% of the time (997/2,029) since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 97th Percentile.
Dane Dunning threw fastballs down 48% of the time (493/1,027) last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 97th Percentile.
Dane Dunning has allowed at least one HR in each of his last seven games dating back to August 18th, 2022 — Gerrit Cole has the longest active streak at 11.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Royals are just 26-55 (.321) on the road last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Royals are just 3-77 (.038) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Royals are just 4-41 (.089) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Royals are just 24-79 (.233) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Rangers are just 53-11 (.828) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Rangers are just 34-47 (.420) at home last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Rangers are just 65-82 (.442) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Rangers are just 23-75 (.235) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 642 strikeouts in 3,264 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals hitters slugged just .368 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .445.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 32% on the road last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .991 (2,308 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.083.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters had a swing rate of 37% on the first pitch of at-bats last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Rangers hitters had an OPS of .925 (376 PA’s) against pitchers who had thrown at least 80 pitches in a game last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
The Rangers have a winning percentage of just 43% at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Rangers hitters slugged just .331 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 30 days of the regular season (28 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .582.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers walked 126 of 1,420 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Royals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Royals have won just 15% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers walked 139 of 1,440 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 46% against Rangers pitchers last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 51% of their games last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Rangers pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 59% of their games since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Rangers vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brett Martin (Rangers): Shoulder, D60
- Kansas City Royals – No Injuries Reported
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