- The Rays (64-55) are -165 favorites vs the Royals (49-73)
- Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke (4-8), 4.12 ERA
- Rays starting pitcher: Ryan Yarbrough (1-7), 4.74 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSUN
The Kansas City Royals (+135) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-165) on Sunday, August 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg.
The Rays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Royals vs Rays Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Royals are 49-71 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 56-61 ATS.
Royals vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -150 | O 7.5 -110 | +135 |
| Rays | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -110 | -165 |
Royals vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rays will win Sunday‘s matchup with 67.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Rays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 away games (+11.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+11.30 Units / 48% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 51 of his last 80 games (+10.85 Units / 9% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+10.45 Units / 22% ROI)
Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Wander Franco has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games at home (+14.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- Manuel Margot has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.50 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ji-Man Choi has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games at home (+12.00 Units / 60% ROI)
- Wander Franco has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Shane McClanahan has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+11.30 Units / 63% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 68 games (+18.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 29 games (+9.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 26 away games (+3.55 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.45 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 8 of their last 14 games (+3.70 Units / 23% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 56-64 against the Run Line (-19.2 Units / -12.25% ROI).
- 49-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.55 Units / -8.25% ROI
- 58-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.75 Units / -4.36% ROI
- 58-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -6 Units / -4.52% ROI
Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 56-61 against the Run Line (-5.45 Units / -3.79% ROI).
- 62-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.75 Units / -5.91% ROI
- 52-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.1 Units / -7.96% ROI
- 58-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.04% ROI
Donald Greinke: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .333 (13-for-39) against Zack Greinke with two-strikes this month (3 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .166 — first Percentile.
Zack Greinke has not walked any of the 54 batters that he has faced — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Zack Greinke has thrown his changeup for a strike just 49% (145/298) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Zack Greinke has a strikeout rate of just 28% (62 SO in 221 PAs) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 0 Percentile.
Ryan Yarbrough: Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ryan Yarbrough has averaged 71.1 MPH on sliders since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 85.1 — first Percentile.
Ryan Yarbrough has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 84.8 MPH since the start of last season (678 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 88.6
Ryan Yarbrough has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 84.6 MPH on the road since the start of last season (384 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 88.7
Ryan Yarbrough has an average fastball velocity of just 86.5 MPH since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 93.2 — 0 Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Rays
The Royals are just 3-32 (.086) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.
The Royals are just 1-58 (.017) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .113.
The Royals are just 9-32 (.220) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.
The Royals are just 12-38 (.240) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Rays are just 53-8 (.869) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Rays are 37-23 (.617) at home this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Rays are 41-7 (.854) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Rays are 27-7 (.794) when scoring in the first inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters are averaging just 3.79 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Royals hitters are slugging just .370 against RHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .301 (7,618 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .491 (310 PA’s) on the road this month (9 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .679.
Rays Hitting Stats & Trends
Rays hitters have grounded into 139 double plays in 1,892 opportunities (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Rays hitters have grounded into 20 double plays in 355 opportunities (6%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Rays are batting just .158 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Rays have a winning percentage of 58% since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have walked 1,048 of 10,843 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Rays Pitching Stats & Trends
Rays pitchers have walked 284 of 4,371 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 55 of 1,066 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Rays pitchers have walked 720 of 10,369 batters (7%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays pitchers have walked 186 of 3,056 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rays vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jon Chargois (Rays): Oblique, D60
- Michael Zunino (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Shane Baz (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Roman Quinn (Rays): Knee, D10
- Andrew Kittredge (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Brendan McKay (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Yonny Chirinos (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Wander Samuel Franco (Rays): Wrist, D10
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Rays): Shoulder, D60
- Nick Anderson (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Josh Fleming (Rays): Oblique, D15
- Matthew Wisler (Rays): Neck, D15
- Kevin Kiermaier (Rays): Hip, D60
- Tyler Glasnow (Rays): Elbow, D60
- Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D60
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