- The Red Sox are -225 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Austin Cox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: James Paxton
- Watch the game on NESN
The Kansas City Royals (+185) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-225) on Thursday, August 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Royals vs Red Sox Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 37-79 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 58-56 ATS.
Royals vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 +105 | O 10.5 -115 | +185 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 -125 | U 10.5 -105 | -225 |
Royals vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 83.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Red Sox and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jordan Lyles has hit the Earned Runs Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+11.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Freddy Fermin has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+10.95 Units / 68% ROI)
- Freddy Fermin has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+10.60 Units / 59% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+10.10 Units / 34% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+9.90 Units / 90% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 24 games at home (+11.10 Units / 46% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Brayan Bello has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.55 Units / 70% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+9.55 Units / 66% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.25 Units / 43% ROI)
Red Sox vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Red Sox vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Maikel Garcia | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
Red Sox vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Freddy Fermin | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Red Sox vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| James Paxton | 6.5 -120 | 6.5 -105 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.94 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games (+6.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.44 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 25 games (+5.20 Units / 21% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 24 games at home (+3.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.00 Units / 21% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 49-67 against the Run Line (-28.55 Units / -20.35% ROI).
- 37-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -27.3 Units / -22.98% ROI
- 54-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.35 Units / -8.94% ROI
- 59-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.5 Units / -0.4% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 58-56 against the Run Line (-4.85 Units / -3.28% ROI).
- 59-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.85 Units / 1.33% ROI
- 56-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.1 Units / -3.29% ROI
- 54-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.15 Units / -6.56% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Austin Cox has allowed an OPS of 1.227 (16 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 30 days (6 games) — highest among in MLB; League Avg: .502 — 0 Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard allowed 30 stolen bases in 2022 — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard had second base stolen on him 25 times in 2022 — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted .562 (9-for-16) against Noah Syndergaard in close and late situations in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .255 — first Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
James Paxton has allowed an OBP of just .208 (77 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: .311 — 99th Percentile.
James Paxton has allowed an OBP of just .209 (182 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 13th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 89th Percentile.
James Paxton has struck out 30% (71/240) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 14th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 91st Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .164 (12-for-73) against James Paxton when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 98th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Royals are just 10-24 (.294) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .613.
The Royals are just 9-75 (.107) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .358.
The Royals are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals are just 26-25 (.510) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Red Sox are 46-7 (.868) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .782.
The Red Sox are 30-28 (.517) after a win as underdogs since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Red Sox are 44-3 (.936) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Red Sox are 41-25 (.621) after a home win since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .540.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 32% of games in which they have scored first on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.
The Royals have won just 44% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 70%.
The Royals are batting just .207 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Royals hitters are slugging .422 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .276.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .185 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .150.
The Red Sox are batting .278 at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .375 (507 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
The Red Sox are batting .299 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 5.39 (491.0 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.45.
The Royals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Royals pitchers have won only 11% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Royals pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 70 of 1,010 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .263 against Red Sox pitchers with the shift this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Red Sox pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 66% of opposing batters this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kaleb Ort (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
- Justin Turner (Red Sox): Heel, Day-to-Day
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Joely Rodríguez (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Donald Greinke (Royals): Elbow, D15
- Nicholas Pratto (Royals): Groin, D10
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Taylor Clarke (Royals): Elbow, D15
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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