- The Red Sox are -160 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
- Royals / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | FDKC
The Kansas City Royals (+135) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-160) on Monday, August 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Boston, MA.
This season, the Royals are 56-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 62-50 ATS.
Royals vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 7-5, 3.74 ERA
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello 7-5, 3.21 ERA
Royals vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -150 | O 9.5 -115 | +135 |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +125 | U 9.5 -105 | -160 |
Royals vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Monday‘s MLB game with 59.6% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 away games (+27.60 Units / 276% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 away games (+10.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+9.25 Units / 93% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+8.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Walks Over in 5 of his last 7 games (+8.40 Units / 120% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Romy Gonzalez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games (+16.10 Units / 322% ROI)
- Roman Anthony has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+12.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Roman Anthony has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+10.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+9.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+9.60 Units / 35% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 73 of their last 112 games (+31.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 44 away games (+19.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 104 games (+16.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 43 away games (+13.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 44 away games (+13.00 Units / 28% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 48 games (+17.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 28 games (+14.25 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 56 of their last 95 games (+13.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 55 games at home (+9.60 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 53 of their last 108 games (+9.36 Units / 6% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 58-53 against the Run Line (-6.4 Units / -4.08% ROI).
- 56-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.05 Units / 0.04% ROI
- 46-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -24.47 Units / -20.05% ROI
- 65-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +14.3 Units / 11.5% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 62-50 against the Run Line (+11.35 Units / 7.85% ROI).
- 62-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.64 Units / 1.74% ROI
- 52-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.06 Units / -9.7% ROI
- 58-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.4 Units / 0.32% ROI
Red Sox vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Romy Gonzalez (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Rob Refsnyder (BOS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Carlos Narvaez (BOS) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Red Sox vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Carlos Narvaez (BOS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Jonathan India (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Vinnie Pasquantino (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
Red Sox vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Romy Gonzalez (BOS) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Red Sox vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brayan Bello (BOS) | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
| Bailey Falter (KC) | 3.5 -115 | 3.5 -110 |
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 46% of the time (212/457) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 22% (133/599) against Bailey Falter this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 17% (99/590) against Bailey Falter this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — third Percentile.
Bailey Falter has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (711/1,698) this season — highest among among NL Starters; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% (14/41) against Brayan Bello’s away fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 54% — 100th Percentile.
Brayan Bello has allowed an OPS of .782 (441 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .674 — seventh Percentile.
Brayan Bello has allowed a slugging percentage of just .161 (18 Total Bases / 112 ABs) on elevated fastballs since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 108 total IP; League Avg: .364 — 100th Percentile.
Brayan Bello walked 14% of batters in his last start — tied for 3rd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 7% — eighth Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Royals are 18-3 (.857) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .709.
The Royals were just 4-50 (.074) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Royals are 48-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .958.
The Royals are just 12-81 (.129) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .197.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Red Sox are 37-21 (.638) at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .549.
The Red Sox are 52-3 (.945) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .911.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have struck out in just 18% of their PA’s against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .864 (766 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.068.
The Royals are batting just .279 in hitter’s counts this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Royals hitters have drawn walks in 7% of their PA’s against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .358 (540 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Red Sox hitters have 280 extra-base hits out of 680 total hits (41%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Red Sox hitters have struck out in 23% of their PA’s against RHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 3.52 (485.1 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.28.
The Royals have won just 18% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
The longest HR allowed by the Royals pitchers in the 2024 season traveled 519.4 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 470.4
The Royals have allowed 3.77 runs per game (211/56) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.47.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have won 41% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Red Sox pitchers since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 39% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.
More MLB Reading:
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The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
