- The Tigers are -160 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke
- Tigers starting pitcher: Reese Olson
- Watch the game on BSDET
The Kansas City Royals (+135) visit Comerica Park to take on the Detroit Tigers (-160) on Tuesday, September 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Detroit.
The Tigers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Royals vs Tigers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 54-102 against the spread (ATS), while the Tigers are 82-74 ATS.
Royals vs. Tigers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -150 | O 8 -115 | +135 |
| Tigers | -1.5 +125 | U 8 -105 | -160 |
Royals vs Tigers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Tigers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jordan Lyles has hit the Earned Runs Over in 23 of his last 29 games (+15.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Maikel Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+11.25 Units / 48% ROI)
- Nelson Velazquez has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+9.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 36 games (+9.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+9.15 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 46 games (+18.55 Units / 19% ROI)
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 45 games (+14.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Singles Over in 30 of his last 46 games (+14.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 44 games (+10.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Spencer Torkelson has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 25 games at home (+10.80 Units / 43% ROI)
Tigers vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Ibanez | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Tigers vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Ibanez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -145 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Maikel Garcia | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
Tigers vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Ibanez | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -500 |
| Carson Kelly | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 11 games (+14.75 Units / 134% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+10.88 Units / 97% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 11 games (+9.45 Units / 71% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 53 games (+8.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.77 Units / 63% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 90 games (+12.08 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 145 games (+12.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 69 games (+11.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 12 of their last 14 games (+11.14 Units / 73% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 15 games (+10.06 Units / 60% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 70-86 against the Run Line (-28.5 Units / -15.21% ROI).
- 54-102 when betting on the Moneyline for -25.5 Units / -15.72% ROI
- 76-74 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.6 Units / -3.81% ROI
- 74-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.55 Units / -5.61% ROI
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 82-74 against the Run Line (-2.35 Units / -1.2% ROI).
- 73-83 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.4 Units / 4.32% ROI
- 74-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.55 Units / -6.07% ROI
- 76-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.35 Units / -2.56% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Lucas Giolito allowed a slugging percentage of .542 (198 Total Bases / 365 ABs) against right-handed batters in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .379 — second Percentile.
Lucas Giolito allowed an OPS of 1.348 (128 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.001 — second Percentile.
Lucas Giolito allowed an OBP of .338 (698 PA’s) in 2022 — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — sixth Percentile.
Right-handed batters batted .312 (114-for-365) against Lucas Giolito in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — second Percentile.
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .133 (13-for-98) against Reese Olson over the last 30 days (5 games) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .105 (4-for-38) against Reese Olson — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .236 — 98th Percentile.
Reese Olson has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last six games dating back to August 22nd — tied with Kyle Bradish for the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents are hitting just .048 (1-for-21) against Reese Olson with two-strikes — tied for 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .160 — 97th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Royals are just 11-83 (.117) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .364.
The Royals are just 1-8 (.111) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Royals are just 35-29 (.547) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .735.
The Royals are just 9-15 (.375) after a loss as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .583.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Tigers are 30-9 (.769) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .610.
The Tigers are just 20-125 (.138) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.
The Tigers are just 14-22 (.389) after a home win this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Tigers are just 8-14 (.364) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 52% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .282 (2,855 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Royals are batting just .212 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 37% since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters are slugging just .351 against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .403.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .639 (8,869 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .288 (8,869 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Tigers are batting just .215 on pitches 95 mph or greater since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
The Royals have won just 18% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Royals have won just 17% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Tigers have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Tigers have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 33%.
Tigers pitchers have an ERA of 3.05 (410.0 IP) against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.
Tigers vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Alexander Faedo (Tigers): Finger, D15
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Mason Englert (Tigers): Hip, D15
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Anxiety, D60
- Andrew Vasquez (Tigers): Calf, D15
- Riley Greene (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Alexander (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Matthew Manning (Tigers): Foot, D15
- Matthew Boyd (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Brad Keller (Royals): Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, D15
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- John McMillon (Royals): Forearm, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Brady Singer (Royals): Lumbar Strain, D15
- Freddy Fermin (Royals): Finger, D60
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Austin Cox (Royals): Knee, D60
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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