- The Twins are -210 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke
- Twins starting pitcher: Tyler Mahle
- Watch the game on BSN
The Kansas City Royals (+170) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-210) on Thursday, April 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Royals vs Twins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 6-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 14-11 ATS.
Royals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -120 | O 8 -115 | +170 |
| Twins | -1.5 +100 | U 8 -105 | -210 |
Royals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+8.80 Units / 52% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Nicky Lopez has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Nicky Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+6.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+6.70 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 57% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.15 Units / 58% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.05 Units / 36% ROI)
Twins vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Twins vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Twins vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Twins vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Greinke | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
| Tyler Mahle | 6.5 +125 | 6.5 -160 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 away games (+0.25 Units / 2% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games (+3.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 25 games (+3.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.80 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+1.05 Units / 10% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 9-16 against the Run Line (-10.05 Units / -32.11% ROI).
- 6-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.75 Units / -42.74% ROI
- 12-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.4 Units / -5.04% ROI
- 12-12 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.2 Units / -4.41% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 14-11 against the Run Line (+3.5 Units / 11.67% ROI).
- 14-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.35 Units / -0.99% ROI
- 10-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.25 Units / -15.34% ROI
- 13-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +2 Units / 7.29% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 11% (9/83) against Zack Greinke this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — first Percentile.
Zack Greinke has struck out just 15% (10/65) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 12th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 35% (61/173) against Zack Greinke on fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Zack Greinke has walked 2 of 65 right-handed batters (3%) this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 92nd Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 57% (108/188) against Kyle Wright in two-strike counts in 2022 — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 97th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a groundball rate of 62% (149/240) against Kyle Wright in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 55% (275/501) against Kyle Wright in 2022 — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 95th Percentile.
Kyle Wright allowed a slugging percentage of just .306 (97 Total Bases / 317 ABs) against right-handed batters in 2022 — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .379 — 91st Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals are just 3-9 (.250) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .743.
The Royals are just 5-49 (.093) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .348.
The Royals are just 6-17 (.261) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Royals are just 4-95 (.040) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 12-29 (.293) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 13-33 (.283) when moneyline underdogs of less than +150 since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .261 (635 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .275 (904 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
The Royals are batting just .133 against division opponents this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Royals hitters have drawn 37 walks in 635 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .276 (196 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .651 (196 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .731.
The Twins are batting just .317 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.
Twins hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 204 of their 930 plate appearances (22%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Royals pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Royals pitchers since last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have walked 144 of 1,640 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 49% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 12 of 223 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- James Farmer (Twins): Face, D10
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D15
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Drew Waters (Royals): Oblique, D10
- Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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