- The Twins are + favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Brad Keller
- Twins starting pitcher: John Ober
- Watch the game on BSN
The Kansas City Royals (+) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (+) on Saturday, April 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at + (+).
The Royals vs Twins Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 6-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 16-11 ATS.
Royals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | + + | O + | + |
| Twins | + + | U + | + |
Royals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+7.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.85 Units / 31% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+6.45 Units / 15% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.45 Units / 47% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.15 Units / 46% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.05 Units / 37% ROI)
Twins vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -115 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Edward Olivares | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Max Kepler | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
Twins vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nicky Lopez | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -500 |
Twins vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Ober | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -135 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games (+0.85 Units / 10% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 27 games (+5.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.10 Units / 93% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.15 Units / 25% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 9-18 against the Run Line (-12.2 Units / -36.47% ROI).
- 6-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.75 Units / -46.96% ROI
- 13-12 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.4 Units / -1.33% ROI
- 12-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.3 Units / -7.82% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 16-11 against the Run Line (+5.5 Units / 16.92% ROI).
- 16-11 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 4.07% ROI
- 11-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -10.87% ROI
- 13-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.9 Units / 3.04% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brad Keller has a strike rate of just 57% (266/463) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Brad Keller has a strike rate of just 55% (185/336) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Brad Keller has walked 19 of 108 batters (18%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 32% (108/336) against Brad Keller in non-two strike counts this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 73% of the time (961/1,315) since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 85% of the time (384/452) with two-strikes since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 53% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 31% (62/200) against Bailey Ober since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .272 (25-for-92) against Bailey Ober on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: .339 — 96th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals are just 5-51 (.089) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
The Royals are just 3-9 (.250) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .740.
The Royals are just 1-10 (.091) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Royals are just 31-64 (.326) on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .471.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins are just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 12-29 (.293) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 0-10 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .039.
The Twins are 5-80 (.059) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .045.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .256 (458 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .322.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .261 (698 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Royals are batting just .190 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .274 (979 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .121 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.
Twins hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 223 of their 1,001 plate appearances (22%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .272 (206 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .322.
Twins hitters are slugging .979 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals pitchers have walked 677 of 7,278 batters (9%) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Royals have won just 10% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 13 of 241 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 49% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 66 of 980 batters (7%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- James Farmer (Twins): Face, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Elbow, Day-to-Day
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D15
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Drew Waters (Royals): Oblique, D10
- Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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