- The Twins are -225 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Brady Singer
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray
- Watch the game on BSN
The Kansas City Royals (+180) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-225) on Sunday, April 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Royals vs Twins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 7-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 16-12 ATS.
Royals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -115 | O 8 -140 | +180 |
| Twins | -1.5 -105 | U 8 +115 | -225 |
Royals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.55 Units / 45% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+7.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- Edward Olivares has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+7.40 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Donovan Solano has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.45 Units / 48% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.90 Units / 53% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.20 Units / 30% ROI)
Twins vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Twins vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Twins vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Trevor Larnach | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Twins vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brady Singer | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -115 |
| Sonny Gray | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -135 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games (+0.25 Units / 5% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 28 games (+4.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.80 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+2.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+1.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 10-18 against the Run Line (-11.2 Units / -32.51% ROI).
- 7-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.75 Units / -38.19% ROI
- 13-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.6 Units / -5.13% ROI
- 13-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.3 Units / -4.28% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 16-12 against the Run Line (+4.3 Units / 12.76% ROI).
- 16-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.75 Units / -1.75% ROI
- 11-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.45 Units / -14.31% ROI
- 14-11 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.9 Units / 6.2% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brady Singer has allowed a slugging percentage of .596 (31 Total Bases / 52 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .346 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 67% (39/58) against Brady Singer in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 68% (15/22) against Brady Singer on low non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — first Percentile.
Brady Singer has thrown inside pitches 55% of the time (139/255) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 50% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (338/671) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Sonny Gray has struck out 38% (26/69) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Sonny Gray has a strike rate of just 52% (276/530) on sliders since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .174 (8-for-46) against Sonny Gray in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .322 — 98th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals are just 5-51 (.089) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .348.
The Royals are just 4-9 (.308) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .739.
The Royals are just 4-97 (.040) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Royals are just 2-7 (.222) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .593.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins are just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 12-30 (.286) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 7-71 (.090) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Twins are just 0-10 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .040.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .266 (733 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 8% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .256 (458 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .322.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .554 (458 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .197 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Twins are batting just .118 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .268 (209 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Twins hitters have 60 strikeouts in 209 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 19% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals pitchers have allowed a run 38% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Royals pitchers have walked 11 of 58 batters (19%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 73 of 1,019 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 15 of 250 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Gilberto Celestino (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Ronny Henriquez (Twins): Elbow, D15
- James Farmer (Twins): Face, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Elbow, Day-to-Day
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D15
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Drew Waters (Royals): Oblique, D10
- Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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