- The Twins (59-55) are -190 favorites vs the Royals (48-69)
- Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke (4-7), 4.28 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray (6-3), 3.33 ERA
- Watch the game on BSN
The Kansas City Royals (+155) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-190) on Tuesday, August 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Royals vs Twins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Royals are 48-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 53-61 ATS.
Royals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -130 | O 8 -115 | +155 |
| Twins | -1.5 +105 | U 8 -105 | -190 |
Royals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 69.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 21 away games (+10.05 Units / 47% ROI)
- Kris Bubic has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.90 Units / 55% ROI)
- Nicky Lopez has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 16 away games (+9.85 Units / 49% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.80 Units / 56% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 33 away games (+9.60 Units / 23% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 28 games (+18.10 Units / 57% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 42 games at home (+15.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 19 games at home (+14.10 Units / 49% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 33 games (+13.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 34 games at home (+12.00 Units / 29% ROI)
Twins vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jose Miranda | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
Twins vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Carlos Correa | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -250 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jose Miranda | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
Twins vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -105 | 0.5 -140 |
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jorge Polanco | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jose Miranda | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
Twins vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -150 |
| Zack Greinke | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -135 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 63 games (+21.40 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 44 games (+9.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 56 games (+8.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 13 of their last 18 away games (+7.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 21 away games (+5.90 Units / 28% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 65 of their last 112 games (+13.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 77 games (+8.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 12 of their last 21 games at home (+5.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.10 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.05 Units / 41% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 55-62 against the Run Line (-17.6 Units / -11.52% ROI).
- 48-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.3 Units / -8.24% ROI
- 57-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.6 Units / -3.58% ROI
- 56-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.85 Units / -5.3% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 53-61 against the Run Line (-10.7 Units / -7.76% ROI).
- 59-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.85 Units / -1.87% ROI
- 54-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.2 Units / -0.96% ROI
- 51-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.25 Units / -6.54% ROI
Donald Greinke: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 14% (40/285) against Zack Greinke this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Zack Greinke has a strikeout rate of just 15% (32 SO in 211 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 0 Percentile.
Zack Greinke has a first-pitch strike rate of just 45% (22/49) this month (2 games) — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Zack Greinke has averaged 89.2 MPH on fastballs this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — fourth Percentile.
Sonny Gray: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sonny Gray has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (97 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (183/358) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 31% (66/211) against Sonny Gray with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 41% — second Percentile.
Sonny Gray has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (231/520) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total CB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals are just 3-30 (.091) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
The Royals are just 1-54 (.018) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .113.
The Royals are just 6-50 (.107) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .202.
The Royals are just 48-59 (.449) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins are just 5-7 (.417) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 9-22 (.290) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
The Twins are just 3-9 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 52-16 (.765) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 546 strikeouts in 2,847 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have just 218 strikeouts in 1,154 PA’s (19%) against LHP this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have just 647 strikeouts in 3,308 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Royals are batting .258 at home this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .518 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Twins hitters have just 43 strikeouts in 261 PA’s (17%) against RHP this month (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins hitters have 157 extra-base hits out of 381 total hits (41%) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Twins hitters have an OPS of 1.124 (2,055 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Royals pitchers have walked 444 of 4,531 batters (10%) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers have walked 213 of 2,453 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% against Twins pitchers over the past seven days (5 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Twins vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Garlick (Twins): Ribcage, D10
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D10
- Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D60
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