Royals vs Twins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 16

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 16, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Twins (59-55) are -190 favorites vs the Royals (48-69)
  • Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke (4-7), 4.28 ERA
  • Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray (6-3), 3.33 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSN

The Kansas City Royals (+155) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-190) on Tuesday, August 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.

The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Royals vs Twins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Royals are 48-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 53-61 ATS.

Royals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Royals+1.5 -130O 8 -115+155
Twins -1.5 +105U 8 -105-190

Royals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 69.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Twins vs Royals and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 21 away games (+10.05 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Kris Bubic has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.90 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Nicky Lopez has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 16 away games (+9.85 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.80 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 33 away games (+9.60 Units / 23% ROI)

Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 28 games (+18.10 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 42 games at home (+15.30 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 19 games at home (+14.10 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Max Kepler has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 33 games (+13.20 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 34 games at home (+12.00 Units / 29% ROI)

Twins vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Byron Buxton 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Carlos Correa 0.5 +310 0.5 -550
Jake Cave 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Jorge Polanco 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Jose Miranda 0.5 +350 0.5 -650

Twins vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Byron Buxton 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Carlos Correa 1.5 +170 1.5 -250
Jake Cave 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Jorge Polanco 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Jose Miranda 0.5 -275 0.5 +180

Twins vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Byron Buxton 0.5 -105 0.5 -140
Carlos Correa 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Jake Cave 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Jorge Polanco 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Jose Miranda 0.5 +130 0.5 -190

Twins vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Sonny Gray 5.5 +105 5.5 -150
Zack Greinke 3.5 -105 3.5 -135
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 63 games (+21.40 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 44 games (+9.75 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 56 games (+8.40 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 13 of their last 18 away games (+7.30 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 21 away games (+5.90 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 65 of their last 112 games (+13.55 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 77 games (+8.15 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 12 of their last 21 games at home (+5.80 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.10 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.05 Units / 41% ROI)

Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 55-62 against the Run Line (-17.6 Units / -11.52% ROI).

  • 48-69 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.3 Units / -8.24% ROI
  • 57-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.6 Units / -3.58% ROI
  • 56-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.85 Units / -5.3% ROI

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 53-61 against the Run Line (-10.7 Units / -7.76% ROI).

  • 59-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.85 Units / -1.87% ROI
  • 54-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.2 Units / -0.96% ROI
  • 51-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.25 Units / -6.54% ROI

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 14% (40/285) against Zack Greinke this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

Zack Greinke has a strikeout rate of just 15% (32 SO in 211 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 0 Percentile.

Zack Greinke has a first-pitch strike rate of just 45% (22/49) this month (2 games) — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 6 total IP; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.

Zack Greinke has averaged 89.2 MPH on fastballs this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — fourth Percentile.

Sonny Gray: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Sonny Gray has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 74.3 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (97 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 137 total IP; League Avg: 80.3

Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (183/358) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 31% (66/211) against Sonny Gray with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total IP; League Avg: 41% — second Percentile.

Sonny Gray has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (231/520) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 56 total CB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.

Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Royals are just 3-30 (.091) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.

The Royals are just 1-54 (.018) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .113.

The Royals are just 6-50 (.107) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .202.

The Royals are just 48-59 (.449) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals

The Twins are just 5-7 (.417) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are just 9-22 (.290) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.

The Twins are just 3-9 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are 52-16 (.765) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.

Royals hitters have just 546 strikeouts in 2,847 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals hitters have just 218 strikeouts in 1,154 PA’s (19%) against LHP this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals hitters have just 647 strikeouts in 3,308 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Royals are batting .258 at home this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Twins hitters are slugging .518 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .447.

Twins hitters have just 43 strikeouts in 261 PA’s (17%) against RHP this month (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Twins hitters have 157 extra-base hits out of 381 total hits (41%) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Twins hitters have an OPS of 1.124 (2,055 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Royals pitchers have walked 444 of 4,531 batters (10%) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Royals pitchers have walked 213 of 2,453 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% against Twins pitchers over the past seven days (5 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Twins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Twins vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kyle Garlick (Twins): Ribcage, D10
  • Jorge Polanco (Twins): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D10
  • Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
  • Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
  • Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
  • Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
  • Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.