- The – (80-35) are favorites vs the – (80-35)
- Royals starting pitcher: Daniel A. Lynch (4-7), 4.51 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Tyler Mahle (6-7), 4.25 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Kansas City Royals () visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins () on Wednesday, August 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Royals vs Twins Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Royals are 48-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 54-61 ATS.
Royals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | O | ||
| Twins | U |
Royals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 67.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 22 away games (+11.30 Units / 50% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+11.00 Units / 59% ROI)
- Nicky Lopez has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 17 away games (+10.85 Units / 51% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 13 away games (+10.55 Units / 79% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.55 Units / 43% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+19.60 Units / 60% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 43 games at home (+16.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+15.10 Units / 50% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 34 games (+14.20 Units / 27% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 25 of his last 35 games at home (+13.00 Units / 31% ROI)
Twins vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Gilberto Celestino | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jose Miranda | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
Twins vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Gilberto Celestino | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Gio Urshela | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -275 |
| Luis Arraez | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -275 |
Twins vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -160 |
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Gilberto Celestino | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jose Miranda | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -155 |
Twins vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Mahle | 6.5 +105 | 6.5 -150 |
| Daniel Lynch | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -135 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 64 games (+20.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 45 games (+8.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+7.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 57 games (+7.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 22 away games (+4.90 Units / 22% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 66 of their last 113 games (+14.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 78 games (+9.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+6.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+6.10 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in their last 5 games at home (+5.10 Units / 82% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 55-63 against the Run Line (-18.85 Units / -12.24% ROI).
- 48-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.3 Units / -8.97% ROI
- 58-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.6 Units / -2.78% ROI
- 56-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -8 Units / -6.14% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 54-61 against the Run Line (-9.65 Units / -6.95% ROI).
- 60-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -1.2% ROI
- 55-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -0.16% ROI
- 51-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.4 Units / -7.39% ROI
Daniel A. Lynch: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .524 (22-for-42) against Daniel Lynch on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: .335 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .362 (17 GB hits out of 47 GBs) against Daniel Lynch with runners on base this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: .236 — third Percentile.
Daniel Lynch has allowed an OBP of .296 (378 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: .236 — third Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (28/85) against Daniel Lynch on breaking pitches this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 24% — third Percentile.
Tyler Mahle: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tyler Mahle has a strikeout rate of 30% (27 SO in 89 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 32% (99/313) against Tyler Mahle on low breaking pitches this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — second Percentile.
Tyler Mahle has a strikeout rate of 41% (65 SO in 157 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% (53/187) against Tyler Mahle on inside fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals are just 3-30 (.091) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
The Royals are just 1-55 (.018) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Royals are just 6-51 (.105) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .201.
The Royals are just 19-56 (.253) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins are just 3-9 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 7-38 (.156) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .201.
The Twins are just 9-22 (.290) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
The Twins are just 5-7 (.417) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 548 strikeouts in 2,850 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .982 (2,009 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.
The Royals are batting .361 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Royals hitters are slugging just .379 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .423 on the road since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Twins hitters are slugging .514 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Twins hitters are slugging .417 on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .389.
Twins hitters have just 50 strikeouts in 305 PA’s (16%) against RHP this month (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have allowed 1.77 runs per game (209/118) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.27.
Royals pitchers have walked 447 of 4,575 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Royals have won just 7% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% over the last 14 days (11 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Garlick (Twins): Ribcage, D10
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D10
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D10
- Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D60
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