- The Twins are -225 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Austin Cox
- Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan
- Watch the game on BSN
The Kansas City Royals (+185) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-225) on Monday, July 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).
The Royals vs Twins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 25-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 41-44 ATS.
Royals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -105 | O 8.5 +100 | +185 |
| Twins | -1.5 -115 | U 8.5 -120 | -225 |
Royals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 83.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Pratto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nick Pratto has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+10.95 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+12.65 Units / 32% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+11.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+9.90 Units / 49% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+9.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 57% ROI)
Twins vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Twins vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
Twins vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Twins vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cox | 3.5 +110 | 3.5 -145 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 80 games (+7.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 32 away games (+7.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+4.75 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 8 away games (+4.70 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.80 Units / 50% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 53 games (+15.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+7.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 54 games (+5.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 34 games at home (+2.55 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 33-51 against the Run Line (-27.15 Units / -26.14% ROI).
- 25-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.75 Units / -28.24% ROI
- 39-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.4 Units / -9.12% ROI
- 43-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.35 Units / -0.38% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 41-44 against the Run Line (-4.4 Units / -4.2% ROI).
- 42-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.25 Units / -11.33% ROI
- 36-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.7 Units / -15.6% ROI
- 46-36 when betting on the total runs Under for +7 Units / 7.51% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 23% (5/22) against Austin Cox over the last 30 days (6 games) — 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — seventh Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 27% (9/33) against Austin Cox over the last 30 days (6 games) — tied for 3rd lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 45% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .128 (6-for-47) against Austin Cox over the last 30 days (6 games) — 12th best among in MLB; League Avg: .234 — 90th Percentile.
Austin Cox has struck out 35% (7/20) of left-handed batters he faced over the last 30 days (5 games) — 12th best among among 106 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 24% — 89th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Ryan has a strike rate of 73% (514/704) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has a strike rate of 71% (1,061/1,487) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 57% of Joe Ryan’s pitches (851/1,487) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a swing rate of 59% (416/704) against Joe Ryan this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 47% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals are just 7-66 (.096) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .357.
The Royals are just 7-13 (.350) after a loss as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .590.
The Royals are just 6-11 (.353) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .686.
The Royals are just 24-51 (.320) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins are just 7-23 (.233) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 3-9 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 15-30 (.333) after a win as underdogs since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals are batting just .197 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 29% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 30% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Royals have won just 32% of games in which they have scored first on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 660 strikeouts in 2,421 PA’s (27%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins are batting just .220 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Twins hitters have been successful in 129% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 57%.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .221 (1,771 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have allowed a run 38% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Royals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .290 against Royals pitchers with runners on base since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Twins have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have a strike rate of 66% this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Twins vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Oblique, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Jorge López (Twins): Mental Health, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Michael Massey (Royals): Hand, D10
- Matthew Beaty (Royals): Concussion, D7
- Ryan Yarbrough (Royals): Head, D60
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D15
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Jordan Lyles (Royals): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D15
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