- The Twins are -200 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke
- Twins starting pitcher: Kenta Maeda
- Watch the game on BSN
The Kansas City Royals (+165) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-200) on Tuesday, July 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Royals vs Twins Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 25-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 42-44 ATS.
Royals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -120 | O 9 -115 | +165 |
| Twins | -1.5 +100 | U 9 -105 | -200 |
Royals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 77.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Nick Pratto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nick Pratto has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Nick Pratto has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.75 Units / 31% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+11.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+8.45 Units / 106% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+8.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+7.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- Pablo Lopez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.80 Units / 40% ROI)
Twins vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Twins vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Maikel Garcia | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
Twins vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Twins vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kenta Maeda | 4.5 -175 | 4.5 +135 |
| Zack Greinke | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -125 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 33 away games (+6.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 81 games (+6.55 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.70 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 13 games (+3.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 away games (+2.80 Units / 33% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 54 games (+14.05 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 54 games (+6.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+4.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 18 of their last 35 games at home (+3.55 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 47% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 33-52 against the Run Line (-28.25 Units / -26.92% ROI).
- 25-60 when betting on the Moneyline for -25.75 Units / -29.05% ROI
- 40-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.4 Units / -7.93% ROI
- 43-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.35 Units / -1.44% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 42-44 against the Run Line (-3.4 Units / -3.21% ROI).
- 43-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.25 Units / -10.27% ROI
- 37-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.7 Units / -14.35% ROI
- 46-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +6 Units / 6.37% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (114/653) against Zack Greinke this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — fourth Percentile.
Zack Greinke has walked 13 of 366 batters (4%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 18% (42/235) against Zack Greinke this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — fourth Percentile.
Zack Greinke has allowed a slugging percentage of .831 (49 Total Bases / 59 ABs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: .433 — 0 Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kenta Maeda has not allowed a HR in any of his last three starts dating back to April 26th — Collin McHugh has the longest active streak at 9.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals are just 6-22 (.214) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .607.
The Royals are just 6-19 (.240) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Royals are just 7-13 (.350) after a loss as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .590.
The Royals are just 25-60 (.294) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins are just 7-23 (.233) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 19-34 (.358) after a road win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .491.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 34-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 29% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Royals have won just 40% of games in which they have scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 67%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 29% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Royals have won just 43% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .148 with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .294 (802 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .224 (1,788 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Twins hitters have 663 strikeouts in 2,440 PA’s (27%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Royals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Royals pitchers have walked 902 of 9,495 batters (10%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have allowed a run 42% of the time after an opposing score this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 242 of 3,167 batters (8%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Twins have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Oblique, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Royals): Concussion, D7
- Ryan Yarbrough (Royals): Head, D60
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D15
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Jordan Lyles (Royals): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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