- The Twins are -275 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Alec Marsh
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo López
- Watch the game on BSN
The Kansas City Royals (+220) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-275) on Wednesday, July 5, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Royals vs Twins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 25-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 43-44 ATS.
Royals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 +110 | O 8 -105 | +220 |
| Twins | -1.5 -135 | U 8 -115 | -275 |
Royals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 85.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+11.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- Nick Pratto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- Jordan Lyles has hit the Earned Runs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.35 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+11.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+9.50 Units / 106% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+9.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.20 Units / 42% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+7.95 Units / 38% ROI)
Twins vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
Twins vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -110 |
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Twins vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Dairon Blanco | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Twins vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez | 7.5 -110 | 7.5 -120 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 82 games (+7.55 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 away games (+6.70 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 14 games (+2.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 away games (+1.80 Units / 19% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 35 of their last 55 games (+13.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+5.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 5 games (+5.10 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 78% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 33-53 against the Run Line (-29.5 Units / -27.78% ROI).
- 25-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -26.75 Units / -29.84% ROI
- 41-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.4 Units / -6.78% ROI
- 43-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.5 Units / -2.64% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 43-44 against the Run Line (-2.35 Units / -2.2% ROI).
- 44-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.25 Units / -9.29% ROI
- 38-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.7 Units / -13.16% ROI
- 46-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.85 Units / 5.09% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of just 15% (115/778) against Cal Quantrill in 2022 — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 18% (262/1,420) against Cal Quantrill in 2022 — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — sixth Percentile.
Cal Quantrill had a strikeout rate of just 17% (128/770) in 2022 — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — fourth Percentile.
16 of Cal Quantrill’s 58 breaking pitch strikeouts (28%) were backdoor in 2022 — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 12% — 96th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pablo Lopez has thrown his curveball 35% of the time (313/889) against right-handed batters this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 53% (126 SO in 237 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 95th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has struck out 34% (77/227) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 95th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has thrown his curveball 30% of the time (323/1,067) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals are just 6-22 (.214) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .608.
The Royals are just 7-68 (.093) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .357.
The Royals are just 6-12 (.333) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .684.
The Royals are just 11-33 (.250) after a road win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .491.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins are just 7-23 (.233) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 18-4 (.818) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .608.
The Twins are just 18-48 (.273) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .357.
The Twins are 15-1 (.938) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .783.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals are batting just .199 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 29% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Royals have won just 30% of games in which they have scored first on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .290 (2,249 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 669 strikeouts in 2,478 PA’s (27%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .667 (802 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .740.
The Twins are batting just .220 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .294 (802 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The Royals have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Twins have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins pitchers have an ERA of 3.38 (376.0 IP) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.43.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 52% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brock Stewart (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- José De León (Twins): Elbow, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Oblique, D10
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Donald Greinke (Royals): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Matthew Beaty (Royals): Concussion, D7
- Ryan Yarbrough (Royals): Head, D60
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D15
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Jordan Lyles (Royals): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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