- The Twins (70-70) are -200 favorites vs the Royals (57-85)
- Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke (4-8), 4.00 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray (7-4), 3.09 ERA
- Watch the game on BSN
The Kansas City Royals (+165) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-200) on Wednesday, September 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Royals vs Twins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Royals are 57-82 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 63-74 ATS.
Royals vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -130 | O 7.5 -105 | +165 |
| Twins | -1.5 +105 | U 7.5 -115 | -200 |
Royals vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Wednesday‘s matchup with confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 21 away games (+15.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 31 of his last 43 away games (+14.45 Units / 23% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+13.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 21 away games (+12.15 Units / 55% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 44 away games (+12.00 Units / 21% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 50 games at home (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- Nick Gordon has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 26 games (+12.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 33 games (+12.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 53 games (+11.70 Units / 20% ROI)
Twins vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jose Miranda | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
Twins vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -275 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +110 |
| Gio Urshela | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -275 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| Jose Miranda | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -275 |
Twins vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Correa | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Gary Sanchez | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Gio Urshela | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jake Cave | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jose Miranda | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -185 |
Twins vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +115 |
| Zack Greinke | 2.5 -165 | 2.5 +120 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Royals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 88 games (+13.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 31 away games (+7.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 9 games (+1.10 Units / 9% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 77 of their last 138 games (+10.80 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.40 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+5.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 23 games at home (+1.85 Units / 6% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 66-72 against the Run Line (-17.95 Units / -9.95% ROI).
- 57-82 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.75 Units / -8.6% ROI
- 70-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -0.76% ROI
- 65-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.75 Units / -8.26% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 63-74 against the Run Line (-14.15 Units / -8.52% ROI).
- 70-68 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.4 Units / -3.51% ROI
- 67-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.85 Units / 0.56% ROI
- 61-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.1 Units / -8.56% ROI
Donald Greinke: Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Greinke has a strikeout rate of just 28% (66 SO in 240 PAs) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (112/344) against Zack Greinke on fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Zack Greinke has averaged 71.5 MPH on curveballs since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 79.2 — third Percentile.
Zack Greinke has struck out just 10% (20/198) of left-handed batters he faced this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Sonny Gray: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (572/1,120) with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Sonny Gray has a strike rate of just 51% (396/773) on sliders since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 150 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Sonny Gray has thrown his curveball 45% of the time (327/724) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total CB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (241/470) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Royals are just 3-68 (.042) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .116.
The Royals are just 4-34 (.105) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.
The Royals are just 8-61 (.116) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.
The Royals are just 23-44 (.343) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .474.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Twins are just 4-11 (.267) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 59-7 (.894) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Twins are 62-21 (.747) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Twins are just 16-135 (.106) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .125.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .982 (2,163 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.084.
Royals hitters have just 607 strikeouts in 3,093 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals hitters are slugging just .359 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .445.
The Royals are batting just .244 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .600 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Twins hitters have drawn 1 walk in 68 PA’s (1%) against LHP this month (7 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Twins are batting just .317 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Twins hitters have just 63 strikeouts in 405 PA’s (16%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 6% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Royals pitchers have walked 1,112 of 11,620 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have walked 521 of 5,493 batters (10%) this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Twins pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Twins pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 40% of their games this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Twins vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
- Maximilian Kepler (Twins): Leg, Day-to-Day
- Christopher Archer (Twins): Pectoral, D15
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, D10
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D60
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D60
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Bicep, D15
- Taylor Clarke (Royals): Oblique, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Knee, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Royals): Knee, D60
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Tyler Zuber (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Edward Olivares (Royals): Quad, D60
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