- The Yankees are -210 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Alec Marsh
- Yankees starting pitcher: Clarke Schmidt
- Watch the game on YES
The Kansas City Royals (+170) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-210) on Friday, July 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Royals vs Yankees Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 28-70 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 50-47 ATS.
Royals vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -115 | O 8.5 -110 | +170 |
| Yankees | -1.5 -105 | U 8.5 -110 | -210 |
Royals vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 79.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- MJ Melendez has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 19 games (+15.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 24 of his last 31 games (+13.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+12.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- Vinnie Pasquantino has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+12.25 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+14.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 games at home (+11.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+11.25 Units / 57% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 69% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.65 Units / 38% ROI)
Yankees vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Oswald Peraza | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Yankees vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Oswald Peraza | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Yankees vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Oswald Peraza | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Yankees vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Clarke Schmidt | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -140 |
| Marsh | 5.5 +100 | 5.5 -130 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 94 games (+10.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 77 games (+8.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 5 away games (+5.05 Units / 93% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+4.75 Units / 68% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 36 games (+11.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.60 Units / 45% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 53 games (+5.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 67 games (+5.65 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 51 games at home (+3.15 Units / 4% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 38-60 against the Run Line (-32.35 Units / -26.91% ROI).
- 28-70 when betting on the Moneyline for -30.55 Units / -30.05% ROI
- 44-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.45 Units / -12.47% ROI
- 52-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.35 Units / 3.11% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 50-47 against the Run Line (+2 Units / 1.67% ROI).
- 50-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.9 Units / -3.81% ROI
- 42-51 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.9 Units / -13.08% ROI
- 51-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.6 Units / 4.28% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The last hit on a Alec Marsh fastball was July 5th. Hitters are 0 for their last 15 in ABs ending on his fastball. — David Bednar has the longest active streak at 20.
Alec Marsh has a strikeout rate of 46% (11 SO in 24 PAs) over the past seven days (1 games) — 4th best in AL over the last week; League Avg: 25% — 93rd Percentile.
Alec Marsh has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 44% (7/16) of opposing batters over the past seven days (1 games) — 3rd lowest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 66% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 25% (3/12) against Alec Marsh — tied for 8th lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 44% — ninth Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 18% (40/226) against Clarke Schmidt since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Clarke Schmidt has thrown his cutter 35% of the time (183/529) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total CUT; League Avg: 13% — 97th Percentile.
Clarke Schmidt has allowed an OBP of .366 (306 PA’s) vs left-handed batters since last season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: .310 — sixth Percentile.
Clarke Schmidt has an average spin rate of 2617.9 RPM on fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 2242.9 — 100th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Royals are just 7-12 (.368) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .684.
The Royals are just 8-70 (.103) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .357.
The Royals are just 27-61 (.307) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Royals are just 28-69 (.289) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Yankees are 27-54 (.333) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .203.
The Yankees are 36-33 (.522) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .357.
The Yankees are 14-11 (.560) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 29% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .278 (1,703 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Royals have won just 44% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .221 (1,958 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 238 walks in 2,295 PA’s (10%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have pulled 53% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Yankees are batting just .215 with two outs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Yankees hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 792 of their 3,556 plate appearances (22%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals pitchers have allowed a run 38% of the time after an opposing score since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Royals pitchers have walked 942 of 9,979 batters (9%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .211 against Yankees pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Yankees pitchers have walked 30 of 232 batters (13%) over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .216 against Yankees pitchers with runners on base this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Yankees pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 4% of innings played this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Yankees vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Donaldson (Yankees): Calf, D60
- Willie Calhoun (Yankees): Quad, D10
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Judge (Yankees): Toe, D10
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Harrison Bader (Yankees): Rib, Day-to-Day
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Jose Trevino (Yankees): Wrist, D10
- Jakob Bauers (Yankees): Shoulder, D10
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Greg Allen (Yankees): Hip, D10
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Royals): Concussion, D7
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Ryan Yarbrough (Royals): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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