- The Yankees are -190 favorites vs the Royals
- Royals starting pitcher: Jordan Lyles
- Yankees starting pitcher: Luis Severino
- Watch the game on YES
The Kansas City Royals (+155) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-190) on Sunday, July 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Royals vs Yankees Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Royals are 28-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 51-48 ATS.
Royals vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | +1.5 -120 | O 9 -105 | +155 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +100 | U 9 -115 | -190 |
Royals vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 77.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Royals and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- MJ Melendez has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 21 games (+17.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+13.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 33 games (+12.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 away games (+11.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+10.90 Units / 30% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 23 games (+16.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+13.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.85 Units / 63% ROI)
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.70 Units / 56% ROI)
Yankees vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Billy McKinney | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Oswald Peraza | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
Yankees vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Billy McKinney | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Oswald Peraza | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Maikel Garcia | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
Yankees vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Pratto | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Billy McKinney | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Oswald Peraza | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Maikel Garcia | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Yankees vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Severino | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
| Jordan Lyles | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 96 games (+10.45 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 79 games (+8.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 17 away games (+2.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 33% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games (+9.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 69 games (+5.60 Units / 6% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 55 games (+5.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 36 games at home (+2.85 Units / 6% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 39-61 against the Run Line (-32.35 Units / -26.44% ROI).
- 28-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -32.55 Units / -31.4% ROI
- 45-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.55 Units / -12.31% ROI
- 53-45 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.2 Units / 2.91% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 51-48 against the Run Line (+1.95 Units / 1.59% ROI).
- 52-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.9 Units / -2.18% ROI
- 43-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -14 Units / -12.92% ROI
- 52-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.45 Units / 4.06% ROI
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jordan Lyles allowed a slugging percentage of .417 (151 Total Bases / 362 ABs) with two-strikes in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .240 — second Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has allowed a slugging percentage of just .043 (2 Total Bases / 47 ABs) on fastballs away this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .381 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted .243 (88-for-362) against Jordan Lyles with two-strikes in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .156 — second Percentile.
Jordan Lyles has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 51% (598/1,172) of the time since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 103 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters batted just .159 (51-for-321) against Alek Manoah in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .311 against Luis Severino this season — seventh worst among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP– fourth Percentile. Opponents batted just .196 (72-for-368) against him last season — 13th best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP– 93rd Percentile.
Luis Severino has allowed an OPS of .934 (233 PA’s) this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: .733 — fourth Percentile.
Alek Manoah allowed a slugging percentage of just .249 (80 Total Bases / 321 ABs) against right-handed batters in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .379 — 100th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Royals are just 6-22 (.214) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Royals are just 7-23 (.233) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .609.
The Royals are just 7-13 (.350) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .683.
The Royals are just 8-71 (.101) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .358.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Yankees are 27-54 (.333) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Yankees are 36-33 (.522) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .358.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 14-11 (.560) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .418.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 39% of games in which they have scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 67%.
The Royals have a winning percentage of just 28% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Royals have won just 29% of games in which they have scored first on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.
The Royals are batting just .201 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have pulled 53% of balls they’ve put into play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Yankees are batting just .215 with two outs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Yankees hitters have drawn 239 walks in 2,298 PA’s (10%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 806 of their 3,622 plate appearances (22%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Royals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Royals pitchers have won only 13% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .213 against Yankees pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Yankees pitchers have walked 38 of 344 batters (11%) over the last 14 days (9 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees pitchers won 56% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Yankees have allowed 1.07 runs per game (106/99) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.35.
Yankees vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joshua Donaldson (Yankees): Calf, D60
- Willie Calhoun (Yankees): Quad, D10
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Judge (Yankees): Toe, D10
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Jose Trevino (Yankees): Wrist, D10
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Vincent Pasquantino (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Royals): Concussion, D7
- Joshua Staumont (Royals): Neck, D60
- Brad Keller (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Ryan Yarbrough (Royals): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Josh Taylor (Royals): Shoulder, D60
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