MLB Betting 2026: Starting Pitchers to Back Early This Season

Every MLB season presents a new betting landscape, and 2026 is no different.

With rotations reshuffled, young arms emerging, and market expectations still catching up, early-season pitching value is often where the best edges exist. Identifying which starters are poised to outperform their odds can be the best way to approach MLB betting in the spring.

This isn’t about blindly backing aces or chasing last year’s stat lines. Instead, the focus is on underlying metrics, role stability, team context, and how MLB odds are pricing each arm this season.

Best MLB Pitchers to Bet on in 2026

Breakout Candidate to Back

New York Yankees right-hander Cam Schlitter is the most obvious breakout pick among all MLB starters through two weeks. He’s now 16/1 in the latest AL Cy Young odds after entering the year as a 40/1 long shot.

Through three starts of his first full season in the majors, Schlittler has a 1.62 ERA and 22 strikeouts across 16 2/3 innings of work. He leads all qualified starters with a K-BB% of 37.9%. His Stuff+ of 114 ranks tied for second in the majors, while his Location+ of 111 is tied for 11th.

Given the profile of the Yankees, Schlittler won’t be flying under the radar, so it’s important to pick the best spots. For example, he and the Yankees were a +100 underdog in a road meeting with the Seattle Mariners on April 1. New York closed as a -136 favorite against the San Francisco Giants in Schlittler’s first start.

While Schlittler was such an obvious pick, I also considered Jacob Misiorowski (Milwaukee Brewers), Eury Pérez (Miami Marlins), José Soriano (Los Angeles Angels), and Braxton Ashcraft (Pittsburgh Pirates) as prime breakout candidates.

Sleeper Pitcher Flying Under the Radar

Given the lower expectations for the Minnesota Twins, Taj Bradley’s impressive start to the 2026 campaign might be a bit underrated. The 25-year-old righty is 2-0 with a 1.08 ERA and a 1.62 FIP in three starts, striking out 22 batters across 16 2/3 frames.

Bradley has a K-BB% of 25.7%, which ranks seventh in the majors. His Stuff+ of 115 is also third. He has an average velocity of 97 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball that he throws 47% of the time, while also mixing in a splitter, cutter, and curveball.

As opposed to Schlittler’s Yankees, there are more opportunities to back Bradley and the Twins. Minnesota has been between a +130 and +144 underdog in all three of Bradley’s starts, going 3-0 over that span. The last victory came in a duel with Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal, who has won back-to-back Cy Young awards.

Undervalued Veteran Starter

Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola is coming off the worst season of his career, but the early results suggest a bounce-back campaign is on the horizon.

After posting a 6.01 ERA (well above his xERA of 4.12), Nola has a 3.63 ERA and a 3.93 FIP through three starts. Nola, 32, has whiffed 19 batters and walked four in 17 1/3 innings. He’s allowed three home runs thus far. The long ball was a problem last year, allowing 1.72 home runs per nine innings.

However, home run data can be a bit noisy on a year-to-year basis, especially when looking at 17 starts in 2025. Nola didn’t surrender a single homer in his road start against the Colorado Rockies.

With Zack Wheeler still making his way back to the rotation, Nola stands out as the veteran presence on a staff with tons of promising young talent. Ace Cristopher Sánchez has already spent time as an NL Cy Young odds favorite during the early stages of this season.

MLB Betting Strategy: How to Evaluate Pitchers Early in the Season

Like many baseball diehards, I spend plenty of time digging through leaderboards on FanGraphs while also diving into game feeds and player pages on Baseball Savant.

All that data can get overwhelming quickly, which is why narrowing the focus to the most meaningful metrics is key. Stats like K-BB% tend to be far more predictive than ERA alone, while expected numbers such as xERA and xFIP can help identify pitchers due for regression — positive or negative.

Early in the season, it’s also critical to track changes in velocity and pitch mix. Those adjustments often provide the clearest signal of which pitchers are poised to outperform their current value.

Betting on MLB throughout the regular season can be a grind, but starting pitchers still carry so much weight when assessing the odds for each game. It’s important to monitor how the market adjusts to each starter.