- The Astros are -275 favorites vs the Tigers
- Tigers starting pitcher: Matthew Manning
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Detroit Tigers (+220) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-275) on Tuesday, April 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Tigers vs Astros Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Tigers are 1-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 2-3 ATS.
Tigers vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 +110 | O 7.5 -105 | +220 |
| Astros | -1.5 -135 | U 7.5 -115 | -275 |
Tigers vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 75.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Austin Meadows has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Harold Castro has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Austin Meadows has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Eric Haase has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.30 Units / 77% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.20 Units / 72% ROI)
- David Hensley has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 42% ROI)
- Korey Lee has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games at home (+3.90 Units / 195% ROI)
- J.J. Matijevic has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 games (+3.45 Units / 173% ROI)
Astros vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Haase | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Ryan Kreidler | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
Astros vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Haase | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jose Abreu | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Ryan Kreidler | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +110 |
Astros vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Haase | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jonathan Schoop | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Ryan Kreidler | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
Astros vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Framber Valdez | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -150 |
| Matt Manning | 3.5 -120 | 3.5 -110 |
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 87 of their last 166 games (+16.70 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 26 of their last 43 away games (+7.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.95 Units / 41% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 102 of their last 180 games (+29.30 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 102 of their last 180 games (+27.75 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 108 of their last 180 games (+23.20 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 119 of their last 180 games (+20.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 95 of their last 180 games (+13.80 Units / 7% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 1-3 against the Run Line (-2.65 Units / -56.38% ROI).
- 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.95 Units / -23.75% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -4.6% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.25 Units / -5.62% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 2-3 against the Run Line (-0.5 Units / -9.52% ROI).
- 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.3 Units / -39.76% ROI
- 4-1 when betting on the total runs Over for +3 Units / 56.07% ROI
- 1-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.45 Units / -61.06% ROI
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matt Manning has induced opposing hitters to ground into just 4 double plays in 124 opportunities (3%) since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 11% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 21% (121/563) against Matt Manning since the 2021 season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 28% — third Percentile.
Matt Manning has struck out just 15% (45/308) of left-handed batters he faced since the 2021 season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 23% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 20% (62/311) against Matt Manning with runners in scoring position since the 2021 season — tied for 13th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 10th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 68% (119/174) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Framber Valdez located 48% of his pitches inside (394/825) with two-strikes in 2022 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (550/798) against Framber Valdez since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Tigers were just 5-24 (.172) vs top 10 scoring offenses in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .411.
The Tigers were just 6-68 (.081) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Tigers were just 16-36 (.308) vs the 10 runs allowed teams in 2022 — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Tigers are just 17-144 (.106) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .128.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Astros were 31-15 (.674) vs the 10 runs allowed teams in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
The Astros are 39-33 (.542) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .347.
The Astros are 49-29 (.628) vs the 10 runs allowed teams since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .410.
The Astros were 41-52 (.441) when scoring 4 or fewer runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters had an OBP of just .277 (4,338 PA’s) against RHP in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .289 (8,658 PA’s) against RHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Tigers hitters had an OPS of just .608 (4,338 PA’s) against RHP in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Tigers hitters slugged just .331 against RHP in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 706 strikeouts in 3,959 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters struck out just 321 times in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 836 strikeouts in 4,619 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros are batting .189 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Tigers pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 58% of their games on the road in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Tigers pitchers since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers pitchers walked 129 of 1,425 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in 2022 — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Tigers pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2022 — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents batted just .212 against Astros pitchers in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Astros pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 38% of their games since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Astros vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Jose Altuve (Astros): Thumb, D10
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Parker Mushinski (Astros): Spine, D15
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Michael Lorenzen (Tigers): Groin, D15
- Tarik Skubal (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Beau Brieske (Tigers): Arm, D15
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Nevin (Tigers): Oblique, D10
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