- The Blue Jays (54-44) are -225 favorites vs the Tigers (40-59)
- Tigers starting pitcher: Tyler Alexander (2-3), 4.05 ERA
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi (3-5), 5.12 ERA
- Watch the game on SNET
The Detroit Tigers (+180) visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays (-225) on Thursday, July 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:07pm EDT in Toronto.
The Blue Jays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Tigers vs Blue Jays Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Tigers are 40-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Blue Jays are 43-55 ATS.
Tigers vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -110 | O 9.5 -115 | +180 |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 -110 | U 9.5 -105 | -225 |
Tigers vs Blue Jays Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Blue Jays will win Thursday‘s matchup with 55.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Blue Jays and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Akil Baddoo has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 away games (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Javier Baez has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 23 away games (+9.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 33 games (+9.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- Miguel Cabrera has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+9.05 Units / 68% ROI)
- Austin Meadows has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 58% ROI)
Best Blue Jays Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+12.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+11.55 Units / 52% ROI)
- Bradley Zimmer has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 54 games (+9.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+9.80 Units / 18% ROI)
Blue Jays vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Kirk | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Bo Bichette | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Lourdes Gurriel | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Blue Jays vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Kirk | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
| Bo Bichette | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -250 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| George Springer | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
| Lourdes Gurriel | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
Blue Jays vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Kirk | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| Bo Bichette | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -185 |
| Danny Jansen | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| George Springer | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| Lourdes Gurriel | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -175 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Tigers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 96 games (+14.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games (+10.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 67 games (+4.20 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 24 away games (+2.10 Units / 8% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Blue Jays: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 40 of their last 56 games (+24.15 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 57 games (+17.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 8 games (+4.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 46-53 against the Run Line (-15.3 Units / -12.14% ROI).
- 40-59 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.05 Units / -8.57% ROI
- 38-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -21.7 Units / -19.94% ROI
- 55-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +13.8 Units / 12.6% ROI
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 43-55 against the Run Line (-16.65 Units / -13.91% ROI).
- 54-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.95 Units / -9.12% ROI
- 52-45 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.25 Units / 2.1% ROI
- 45-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.25 Units / -12.16% ROI
Tyler Alexander: Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .435 (10-for-23) against Tyler Alexander on inside fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .250 — second Percentile.
Tyler Alexander has a strikeout rate of just 13% (18 SO in 140 PAs) this season — 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .379 (11-for-29) against Tyler Alexander’s changeup this season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .207 — sixth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .378 (37-for-98) against Tyler Alexander’s inside fastball since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .258 — 0 Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi: Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yusei Kikuchi has walked 12 of 71 batters (17%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.1 MPH with runners in scoring position since the start of last season (129 balls in play) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 88.0
Yusei Kikuchi has walked 37 of 239 right-handed batters (15%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .463 (56-for-121) against Yusei Kikuchi when he’s behind in the count since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .340 — 0 Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Tigers are just 16-32 (.333) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .476.
The Tigers are just 4-43 (.085) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Tigers are just 3-4 (.429) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Tigers are just 5-28 (.152) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Blue Jays are 31-20 (.608) at home this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .524.
The Blue Jays are just 7-11 (.389) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Blue Jays are 45-2 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Blue Jays are 42-1 (.977) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .886.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .586 (2,638 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .705.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .271 (2,638 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .315 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .580 (1,721 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .700.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .676 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .575.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .456 since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .458 against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .404.
The Blue Jays are batting .274 at home since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Tigers pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Tigers pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 62% of their games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 730 of 9,564 batters (8%) since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Blue Jays pitchers have a strikeout rate of 40% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 17 of 330 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 25% against Blue Jays pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Julian Merryweather (Blue Jays): Side, D60
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Forearm, D60
- Nathan Pearson (Blue Jays): Mono, D60
- Tayler Saucedo (Blue Jays): Hip, D60
- Andrew Vasquez (Blue Jays): Ankle, D15
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Jacob Rogers (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Rony García (Tigers): Bicep, D15
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Achilles , D10
- Wily Peralta (Tigers): Hamstring, D15
- Matthew Manning (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Beau Brieske (Tigers): Forearm, D15
- Michael Pineda (Tigers): Triceps, D15
- Kyle Funkhouser (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
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