- The Braves are -190 favorites vs the Tigers
- Tigers starting pitcher: Matthew Manning, 13.50 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton, 3.37 ERA
The Detroit Tigers (+155) visit CoolToday Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-190) on Saturday, March 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in North Port.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Tigers vs Braves Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Tigers are 5-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 3-6 ATS.
Tigers vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -110 | O 9.5 -120 | +155 |
| Braves | -1.5 -110 | U 9.5 +100 | -190 |
Tigers vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s Spring Training matchup with 68.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Eric Haase has hit the RBIs Under in 5 of his last 6 away games (+2.50 Units / 16% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Total Bases Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+2.70 Units / 19% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 159 games (+18.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 25 away games (+14.80 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 59 of their last 108 games (+12.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 away games (+11.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 37 away games (+11.45 Units / 30% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 140 games (+23.04 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 116 games (+22.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 77 of their last 133 games (+21.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 53 games at home (+11.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+9.10 Units / 12% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 4-6 against the Run Line (-1.6 Units / -13.68% ROI).
- 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.35 Units / -2.83% ROI
- 7-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.6 Units / 32.73% ROI
- 3-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.8 Units / -43.64% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 3-6 against the Run Line (-3.95 Units / -36.07% ROI).
- 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.35 Units / -10.8% ROI
- 5-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 7.58% ROI
- 4-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.4 Units / -14.07% ROI
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matt Manning allowed a slugging percentage of just .224 (15 Total Bases / 67 ABs) over the last 30 days of the regular season (3 games) — 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .401 — 94th Percentile.
Matt Manning allowed an OPS of just .440 (74 PA’s) over the last 30 days of the regular season (3 games) — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .702 — 96th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .149 (10-for-67) against Matt Manning over the last 30 days of the regular season (3 games) — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .242 — 97th Percentile.
Matt Manning threw at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 56% (31/55) of opposing batters over the last 30 days of the regular season (3 games) — 13th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 65% — eighth Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton had a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% (427/732) last season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — sixth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a swing rate of just 45% (648/1,442) against Charlie Morton last season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 33% (63/190) against Charlie Morton with runners in scoring position since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Charlie Morton had a strike rate of just 63% (914/1,442) against right-handed batters last season — tied for 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 10th Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Tigers are 13-1 (.929) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Tigers are just 6-68 (.081) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Tigers are just 64-86 (.427) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Tigers are just 35-46 (.432) at home last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Braves are 59-12 (.831) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters slugged just .331 against RHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .289 (8,569 PA’s) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Tigers hitters had an OPS of just .608 (4,338 PA’s) against RHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Tigers hitters had an OBP of just .277 (4,338 PA’s) against RHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .517 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Braves hitters are slugging .624 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Braves hitters slugged .307 with two-strikes last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Braves hitters slugged .656 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers walked 129 of 1,425 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 58% of their games on the road last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Tigers pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 62% of their games last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Braves allowed 1.02 runs per game (165/162) in late innings last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Braves vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
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