- The Tigers are -135 favorites vs the Guardians
- Tigers starting pitcher: Tarik Skubal
- Guardians starting pitcher: Xzavion Curry
- Watch the game on FOX
The Detroit Tigers (-135) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+115) on Thursday, August 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Tigers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Tigers vs Guardians Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Tigers are 54-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 62-59 ATS.
Tigers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | -1.5 +125 | O 8.5 -105 | -135 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -150 | U 8.5 -115 | +115 |
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 55.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Hits Over in his last 12 games (+12.90 Units / 50% ROI)
- Spencer Torkelson has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 26 games (+12.60 Units / 44% ROI)
- Zach McKinstry has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+11.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+10.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 games (+9.95 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 32 of his last 44 games (+10.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+9.20 Units / 46% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+8.85 Units / 43% ROI)
Guardians vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Zack Short | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1250 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Short | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +145 | 1.5 -190 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Brayan Rocchio | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Guardians vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Zack Short | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -400 |
Guardians vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +125 |
| Xzavion Curry | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -105 |
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 58 away games (+9.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 28 away games (+7.04 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 58 away games (+5.85 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 28 away games (+5.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 away games (+4.55 Units / 26% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 79 games (+14.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.93 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+7.10 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games at home (+5.78 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games at home (+4.85 Units / 21% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 62-58 against the Run Line (-5.75 Units / -3.81% ROI).
- 54-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.05 Units / 3.17% ROI
- 60-54 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 54-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.1 Units / -8.57% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 62-59 against the Run Line (+2.15 Units / 1.41% ROI).
- 58-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.3 Units / -11.32% ROI
- 48-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.3 Units / -20.59% ROI
- 68-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.8 Units / 12% ROI
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tarik Skubal has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 92.9 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season (136 balls in play) — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 176 total IP; League Avg: 89.7
Tarik Skubal’s lowest spin rate on fastballs since last season is 5.0 RPM — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 111 total IP; League Avg: 1238.3
Tarik Skubal has an average spin rate of 2119.2 RPM on sliders since last season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 111 total IP; League Avg: 2396.3 — sixth Percentile.
Tarik Skubal has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.0 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since last season (69 balls in play) — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 111 total IP; League Avg: 89.8
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
80% of Xzavion Curry’s called strikeouts are outside since last season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 53% — 98th Percentile.
Xzavion Curry has struck out just 14% (22/157) of right-handed batters he faced this season — tied for 2nd lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Xzavion Curry has struck out just 14% (22/157) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 5th lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 24% — fifth Percentile.
Xzavion Curry has struck out just 15% (7/48) of right-handed batters he faced over the last 30 days (6 games) — 13th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 10th Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Tigers are just 30-44 (.405) after a home loss since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The Tigers are 21-6 (.778) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .613.
The Tigers are just 10-11 (.476) after a win as favorites since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .593.
The Tigers are just 49-86 (.363) after a loss as underdogs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Guardians are 27-95 (.221) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Guardians are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are just 11-18 (.379) after a home win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .544.
The Guardians are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Tigers have answered-back in just 20% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Tigers hitters had an OBP of just .277 (4,338 PA’s) against RHP in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Tigers hitters slugged just .331 against RHP in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
The Tigers are just 8-15 (.348) against the run line (-34.9% ROI) after a road win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .495.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters struck out just 795 times in 4,584 PA’s (17%) against RHP in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters missed on just 21% of swings in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Games involving the Guardians went OVER in 67% of their games (26.7% ROI) after a road win this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Guardians have barrels in 2% of PA’s since last season (216/10,632) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 56% of their games on the road since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 19% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Tigers pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 2,912 times since last season — 5th most in MLB.
Tigers pitchers have won only 21% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have allowed a run just 27% of the time after an opposing score this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
The longest HR allowed by the Guardians pitchers this season traveled 450.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 464.7
Guardians pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 761 times this season — 4th most in MLB.
Guardians pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 1,240 times this season — tied for 4th most in MLB.
Guardians vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- David Fry (Guardians): Hamstring, D10
- Joshua-Douglas Naylor (Guardians): Side, D10
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Mason Englert (Tigers): Hip, D15
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Anxiety, D60
- Tyler Alexander (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Neck, D60
- Matthew Boyd (Tigers): Elbow, D60
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