- The Guardians are -125 favorites vs the Tigers
- Tigers starting pitcher: Tarik Skubal
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Detroit Tigers (+105) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-125) on Friday, August 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+170).
The Tigers vs Guardians Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
This season, the Tigers are 54-66 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 62-59 ATS.
Tigers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -210 | O 7 -110 | +105 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +170 | U 7 -110 | -125 |
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 72.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Hits Over in his last 12 games (+12.90 Units / 50% ROI)
- Spencer Torkelson has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 26 games (+12.60 Units / 44% ROI)
- Zach McKinstry has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+11.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+10.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 24 games (+9.95 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 32 of his last 44 games (+10.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.15 Units / 34% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+9.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+9.20 Units / 46% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+8.85 Units / 43% ROI)
Guardians vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1400 | 0.5 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Brayan Rocchio | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Guardians vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Riley Greene | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Brayan Rocchio | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Guardians vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Brayan Rocchio | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Guardians vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | 5.5 -145 | 5.5 +110 |
| Gavin Williams | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -150 |
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 58 away games (+9.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 28 away games (+7.04 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 32 of their last 58 away games (+5.85 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 28 away games (+5.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 away games (+4.55 Units / 26% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 79 games (+14.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.93 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+7.10 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 44 games at home (+5.78 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games at home (+4.85 Units / 21% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 62-58 against the Run Line (-5.75 Units / -3.81% ROI).
- 54-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.05 Units / 3.17% ROI
- 60-54 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 54-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.1 Units / -8.57% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 62-59 against the Run Line (+2.15 Units / 1.41% ROI).
- 58-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.3 Units / -11.32% ROI
- 48-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -27.3 Units / -20.59% ROI
- 68-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +15.8 Units / 12% ROI
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tarik Skubal has allowed three-ball counts to 3% of batters they faced (17/607 PA’s) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 100th Percentile.
Tarik Skubal has allowed three-ball counts to 3% of batters they faced (14/478 PA’s) against right-handed batters since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 10% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% (33/71) against Tarik Skubal on elevated fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Tarik Skubal has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 93.0 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since last season (69 balls in play) — tied for 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 112 total IP; League Avg: 89.8
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gavin Williams has a strikeout rate of 73% (22 SO in 30 PAs) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 37% (24/65) against Gavin Williams on pitches in the strike zone — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Gavin Williams’ K:BB ratio is 22.0 (22/1) — 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 3.2 — 97th Percentile.
Gavin Williams has allowed a slugging percentage of just .103 (3 Total Bases / 29 ABs) with two-strikes — tied for 3rd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .278 — 96th Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Tigers are just 30-44 (.405) after a home loss since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The Tigers are 21-6 (.778) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .613.
The Tigers are 17-7 (.708) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Tigers are just 8-15 (.348) after a road win this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Guardians are 27-96 (.220) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Guardians are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are just 11-18 (.379) after a home win this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .543.
The Guardians are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters are slugging just .351 against RHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .401.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .637 (7,797 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .286 (7,797 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .298 (5,085 PA’s) at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 1,391 strikeouts in 7,788 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .650 (1,334 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .739.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .350 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Guardians hitters have just 1,964 strikeouts in 10,701 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have walked 346 of 4,529 batters (8%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .299 against Tigers pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers since the 2021 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 170 of 2,544 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.33 (544.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 2.92 (317.1 IP) against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.28.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.18 (1003.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.09.
Guardians vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Michael Kelly (Guardians): Back, D10
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Cameron Gallagher (Guardians): Concussion, D7
- David Fry (Guardians): Hamstring, D10
- Joshua-Douglas Naylor (Guardians): Side, D10
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Mason Englert (Tigers): Hip, D15
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Anxiety, D60
- Tyler Alexander (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Neck, D60
- Matthew Boyd (Tigers): Elbow, D60
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