- The Tigers are -115 favorites vs the Guardians
- Tigers starting pitcher: Eduardo Rodriguez
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Detroit Tigers (-115) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-105) on Sunday, August 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Tigers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Tigers vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Tigers are 56-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 63-61 ATS.
Tigers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | -1.5 +150 | O 7.5 -105 | -115 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -185 | U 7.5 -115 | -105 |
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Zach McKinstry has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+14.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Spencer Torkelson has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 29 games (+11.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Zach McKinstry has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+11.10 Units / 66% ROI)
- Javier Baez has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 away games (+10.85 Units / 99% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 35 of his last 47 games (+13.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+10.85 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games at home (+10.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+10.20 Units / 44% ROI)
Guardians vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Ibanez | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Zack Short | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Zack Short | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
| Brayan Rocchio | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
Guardians vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Ibanez | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Zack Short | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
Guardians vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
| Logan Allen | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
| Logan Allen | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -165 |
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 61 away games (+11.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 31 away games (+8.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 35 of their last 61 away games (+8.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+7.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 31 away games (+7.54 Units / 20% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 47 of their last 82 games (+13.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.93 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games at home (+8.88 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+3.95 Units / 17% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 64-59 against the Run Line (-5.4 Units / -3.46% ROI).
- 56-67 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.55 Units / 4.25% ROI
- 60-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.35 Units / -2.47% ROI
- 57-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.1 Units / -6.1% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 63-61 against the Run Line (+1.65 Units / 1.06% ROI).
- 59-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.15 Units / -12.19% ROI
- 48-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -30.65 Units / -22.55% ROI
- 71-48 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.8 Units / 13.93% ROI
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed an OBP of just .192 (125 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .298 — 99th Percentile.
Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed an OBP of .556 (18 PA’s) versus the top of the order — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .303 — first Percentile.
Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed an OBP of just .222 (108 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .313 — 99th Percentile.
Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .194 (13 Total Bases / 67 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .405 — 99th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Allen has pitched 10.2 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Josh Hader has the longest active streak at 21.1.
Opponents are hitting just .175 (14-for-80) against Logan Allen with runners in scoring position this season — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 48 total IP; League Avg: .258 — 93rd Percentile.
Logan Allen has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 10.2 innings pitched — Justin Topa has the longest active streak at 19.1.
Logan Allen had a first-pitch strike rate of 83% (19/23) — tied for 2nd highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 62% — 98th Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Tigers are 17-7 (.708) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Tigers are 47-17 (.734) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .640.
The Tigers are just 9-16 (.360) after a road win this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .488.
The Tigers are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Guardians are 28-98 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .130.
The Guardians are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians are just 8-30 (.211) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .274.
The Guardians are 34-5 (.872) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .286 (7,895 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .638 (7,895 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .352 against RHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .652 (10,459 PA’s) since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .718.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 603 strikeouts in 3,255 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,398 strikeouts in 7,839 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters have just 1,984 strikeouts in 10,810 PA’s (18%) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .295 against Tigers pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Tigers pitchers have won 38% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Tigers have won just 23% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.31 (571.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 2.93 (344.1 IP) against division opponents this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.28.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 3.60 (2562.0 IP) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
The Guardians have allowed 3.74 runs per game (232/62) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.59.
Guardians vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Michael Kelly (Guardians): Back, D10
- Shane Bieber (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Cal Quantrill (Guardians): Shoulder, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Cameron Gallagher (Guardians): Concussion, D7
- David Fry (Guardians): Hamstring, D10
- Joshua-Douglas Naylor (Guardians): Side, D10
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Mason Englert (Tigers): Hip, D15
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Anxiety, D60
- Tyler Alexander (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Neck, D60
- Matthew Boyd (Tigers): Elbow, D60
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