Tigers vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 14

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 14, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Guardians (43-44) are -250 favorites vs the Tigers (37-52)
  • Tigers starting pitcher: Elvin Rodriguez (0-2), 11.50 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (6-6), 3.47 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSGL

The Detroit Tigers (+200) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-250) on Thursday, July 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.

The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).

The Tigers vs Guardians Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Tigers are 37-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 45-42 ATS.

Tigers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Tigers+1.5 +100O 8 +100+200
Guardians -1.5 -120U 8 -120-250

Tigers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Tigers and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.45 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Riley Greene has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 24 games (+8.15 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Riley Greene has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 15 games (+1.55 Units / 7% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Myles Straw has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.55 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+5.30 Units / 106% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.00 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Singles Under in 6 of his last 10 games (+4.35 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 37% ROI)

Guardians vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +550 0.5 -1200
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +325 0.5 -550
Josh Naylor 0.5 +375 0.5 -700

Guardians vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 1.5 +125 1.5 -175
Andres Gimenez 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Franmil Reyes 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -300 0.5 +195
Josh Naylor 1.5 +180 1.5 -275

Guardians vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +125 0.5 -175
Andres Gimenez 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +110 0.5 -155
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +100 0.5 -145
Josh Naylor 0.5 -110 0.5 -130

Guardians vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Triston McKenzie 5.5 -130 5.5 -110
Elvin Rodriguez 3.5 +130 3.5 -185
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 86 games (+20.55 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games (+12.90 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 57 games (+7.05 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 20 games (+1.80 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+0.65 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 31 of their last 56 games (+9.10 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 56 games (+8.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 38 games at home (+5.50 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 68 games (+5.20 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+4.60 Units / 16% ROI)

Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 42-47 against the Run Line (-11.9 Units / -10.53% ROI).

  • 37-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.2 Units / -6.48% ROI
  • 31-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.7 Units / -27.29% ROI
  • 53-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.4 Units / 19.71% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 45-42 against the Run Line (+0.05 Units / 0.05% ROI).

  • 43-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -0.39% ROI
  • 39-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.45 Units / -7.74% ROI
  • 42-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.7 Units / -0.73% ROI

No Matchup notes for this Game

Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Triston McKenzie has a first-pitch strike rate of just 39% (18/46) this month (2 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.

Triston McKenzie has a first-pitch strike rate of just 39% (18/46) — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .110 (19-for-173) against Triston McKenzie with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .160 — 97th Percentile.

Triston McKenzie has allowed an OBP of just .176 (187 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — 95th Percentile.

Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Tigers are just 3-18 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Tigers are just 15-28 (.349) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .477.

The Tigers are just 3-4 (.429) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Tigers are just 10-25 (.286) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers

The Guardians are 27-1 (.964) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Guardians are 28-1 (.966) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Guardians are 7-35 (.167) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Guardians are 26-3 (.897) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .277 (2,366 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.

Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .596 (2,366 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .703.

Tigers hitters are slugging just .336 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.

The Tigers are batting just .290 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Guardians hitters have just 426 strikeouts in 2,377 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .608 (895 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.

The Guardians are batting just .219 against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% over the last 14 days (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Tigers pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Tigers pitchers have won only 6% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Guardians have won just 11% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .192 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .224.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed 546 barreled balls since the start of last season — tied for 5th most in MLB.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 23% in close and late situations this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Ribs, D10
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Aaron Civale (Guardians): Wrist, D15
  • Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D15
  • Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob Rogers (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Meadows (Tigers): Achilles , D10
  • Wily Peralta (Tigers): Hamstring, D15
  • Matthew Manning (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
  • José Cisnero (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
  • Rony García (Tigers): Right Shoulder, D15
  • Kyle Funkhouser (Tigers): Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.