- The Guardians (43-44) are -250 favorites vs the Tigers (37-52)
- Tigers starting pitcher: Elvin Rodriguez (0-2), 11.50 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Triston McKenzie (6-6), 3.47 ERA
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Detroit Tigers (+200) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-250) on Thursday, July 14, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Tigers vs Guardians Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Tigers are 37-52 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 45-42 ATS.
Tigers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 +100 | O 8 +100 | +200 |
| Guardians | -1.5 -120 | U 8 -120 | -250 |
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Thursday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 24 games (+8.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 15 games (+1.55 Units / 7% ROI)
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Myles Straw has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+5.30 Units / 106% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Singles Under in 6 of his last 10 games (+4.35 Units / 44% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 37% ROI)
Guardians vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -550 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Guardians vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +125 | 1.5 -175 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 -300 | 0.5 +195 |
| Josh Naylor | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
Guardians vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -175 |
| Andres Gimenez | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -155 |
| Jose Ramirez | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -145 |
| Josh Naylor | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -130 |
Guardians vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Triston McKenzie | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 -110 |
| Elvin Rodriguez | 3.5 +130 | 3.5 -185 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Tigers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 86 games (+20.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games (+12.90 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 57 games (+7.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 20 games (+1.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+0.65 Units / 5% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 31 of their last 56 games (+9.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 56 games (+8.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 38 games at home (+5.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 68 games (+5.20 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+4.60 Units / 16% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 42-47 against the Run Line (-11.9 Units / -10.53% ROI).
- 37-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.2 Units / -6.48% ROI
- 31-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.7 Units / -27.29% ROI
- 53-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.4 Units / 19.71% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 45-42 against the Run Line (+0.05 Units / 0.05% ROI).
- 43-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -0.39% ROI
- 39-42 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.45 Units / -7.74% ROI
- 42-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.7 Units / -0.73% ROI
Elvin Rodriguez: Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Triston McKenzie: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Triston McKenzie has a first-pitch strike rate of just 39% (18/46) this month (2 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has a first-pitch strike rate of just 39% (18/46) — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .110 (19-for-173) against Triston McKenzie with two-strikes this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .160 — 97th Percentile.
Triston McKenzie has allowed an OBP of just .176 (187 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — 95th Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Tigers are just 3-18 (.143) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Tigers are just 15-28 (.349) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .477.
The Tigers are just 3-4 (.429) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Tigers are just 10-25 (.286) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Guardians are 27-1 (.964) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Guardians are 28-1 (.966) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Guardians are 7-35 (.167) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Guardians are 26-3 (.897) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .277 (2,366 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .596 (2,366 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .703.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .336 this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.
The Tigers are batting just .290 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 426 strikeouts in 2,377 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .608 (895 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .716.
The Guardians are batting just .219 against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% over the last 14 days (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 42% against Tigers pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 6% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
The Guardians have won just 11% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .192 against Guardians pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .224.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed 546 barreled balls since the start of last season — tied for 5th most in MLB.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 23% in close and late situations this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Ribs, D10
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Wrist, D15
- Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D15
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Jacob Rogers (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Achilles , D10
- Wily Peralta (Tigers): Hamstring, D15
- Matthew Manning (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- José Cisnero (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Rony García (Tigers): Right Shoulder, D15
- Kyle Funkhouser (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
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