Tigers vs Guardians Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 17

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 17, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The (60-30) are favorites vs the (60-30)
  • Tigers starting pitcher: Tyler Alexander (2-3), 4.45 ERA
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber (4-5), 3.23 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Detroit Tigers () visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians () on Sunday, July 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cleveland.

The are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().

The Tigers vs Guardians Over/Under is total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Tigers are 37-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 47-43 ATS.

Tigers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Tigers O
Guardians U

Tigers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Sunday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Tigers and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Harold Castro has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.30 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Javier Baez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 away games (+10.25 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+10.15 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Jonathan Schoop has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.05 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Austin Meadows has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 58% ROI)

Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Owen Miller has hit the Runs Under in his last 14 games at home (+14.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+10.35 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.85 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Amed Rosario has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 29 games at home (+9.70 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+7.75 Units / 76% ROI)

Guardians vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Austin Hedges 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +250 0.5 -375
Jose Ramirez 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Myles Straw 0.5 +1100 0.5

Guardians vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 1.5 +140 1.5 -200
Austin Hedges 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
Franmil Reyes 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Jose Ramirez 1.5 +185 1.5 -275
Myles Straw 0.5 -200 0.5 +145

Guardians vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Amed Rosario 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Austin Hedges 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +105 0.5 -150
Jose Ramirez 0.5 -105 0.5 -135
Myles Straw 0.5 +260 0.5 -400

Guardians vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Shane Bieber 6.5 -115 6.5 -120
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 89 games (+19.25 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 26 of their last 38 games (+13.85 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 60 games (+4.05 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 23 games (+0.80 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 15 games (+0.25 Units / 2% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 41 games at home (+8.50 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 32 of their last 59 games (+7.85 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 59 games (+7.15 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 71 games (+6.45 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+5.35 Units / 16% ROI)

Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 43-49 against the Run Line (-13.35 Units / -11.43% ROI).

  • 37-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.2 Units / -9.33% ROI
  • 33-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.7 Units / -25.46% ROI
  • 54-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.1 Units / 17.75% ROI

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 47-43 against the Run Line (+1.3 Units / 1.16% ROI).

  • 46-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.6 Units / 2.38% ROI
  • 41-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.45 Units / -6.49% ROI
  • 43-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -2 Units / -2.02% ROI

Opponents are hitting .435 (10-for-23) against Tyler Alexander on inside fastballs this season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .247 — third Percentile.

Tyler Alexander has a strikeout rate of just 14% (18 SO in 131 PAs) this season — 10th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (44/243) against Tyler Alexander this season — 11th lowest among among 223 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 28% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .378 (37-for-98) against Tyler Alexander on inside fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: .257 — 0 Percentile.

Shane Bieber: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Shane Bieber has located his pitches away 63% of the time (269/427) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.

Shane Bieber has a strike rate of 67% (454/678) vs left-handed batters this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 91st Percentile.

10 of Shane Bieber’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 7th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 90th Percentile.

Shane Bieber has allowed a slugging percentage of .458 (33 Total Bases / 72 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .352 — 18th Percentile.

Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Tigers are just 15-31 (.326) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .479.

The Tigers are just 5-46 (.098) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .116.

The Tigers are just 3-20 (.130) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.

The Tigers are just 4-39 (.093) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers

The Guardians are 28-3 (.903) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

The Guardians are 8-5 (.615) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Guardians are just 15-41 (.268) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.

The Guardians are 30-1 (.968) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

Tigers hitters are slugging just .313 on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.

Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .579 (1,646 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.

Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .274 (2,464 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.

Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .266 (1,646 PA’s) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .308.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians hitters have just 439 strikeouts in 2,480 PA’s (18%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters have just 630 strikeouts in 3,386 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .519 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.

Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% over the last 14 days (16 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% this month (18 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Tigers pitchers have won only 5% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 32% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (16 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Guardians have won just 11% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

The Guardians pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 38% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 11 of 280 batters (4%) over the past seven days (8 games) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Guardians pitchers this month (17 games) — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Guardians vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Oscar Gonzalez (Guardians): Ribs, D10
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Aaron Civale (Guardians): Wrist, D15
  • Carlos Vargas (Guardians): Elbow, D60
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D15
  • Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Jacob Rogers (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Meadows (Tigers): Achilles , D10
  • Wily Peralta (Tigers): Hamstring, D15
  • Matthew Manning (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
  • Rony García (Tigers): Right Shoulder, D15
  • Kyle Funkhouser (Tigers): Shoulder, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Guardians vs Tigers and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.