- The Tigers are -115 favorites vs the Guardians
- Tigers vs Guardians Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Tigers / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | FDDT | WKYC
The Detroit Tigers (-120) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+100) on Friday, July 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Cleveland, OH, OH.
This season, the Tigers are 54-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 43-41 ATS.
Tigers vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Tigers starting pitcher: Reese Olson 4-3, 2.96 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Slade Cecconi 3-3, 3.68 ERA
Tigers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | -1.5 +145 | O 8 -110 | -120 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -175 | U 8 -110 | +100 |
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+10.85 Units / 53% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+10.35 Units / 259% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.80 Units / 50% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Javier Baez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.10 Units / 75% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in his last 15 games (+15.05 Units / 75% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games at home (+13.65 Units / 195% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+11.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.35 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.00 Units / 33% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 54 of their last 88 games (+19.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 85 games (+14.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 53 of their last 88 games (+13.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 32 away games (+12.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 48 of their last 87 games (+11.75 Units / 9% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 48 games (+14.45 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 82 games (+12.69 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 29 games at home (+10.25 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 19 games (+1.85 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 39 games (+0.55 Units / 1% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 48-40 against the Run Line (+4.5 Units / 4.02% ROI).
- 54-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.7 Units / 8.82% ROI
- 45-39 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 2.86% ROI
- 39-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.5 Units / -10.74% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 43-41 against the Run Line (-5.55 Units / -4.73% ROI).
- 40-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.95 Units / -5.08% ROI
- 35-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.35 Units / -15.57% ROI
- 46-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.55 Units / 7.96% ROI
Guardians vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -625 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bo Naylor (CLE) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
Guardians vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gleyber Torres (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Colt Keith (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Wenceel Perez (DET) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Guardians vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Carlos Santana (CLE) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Reese Olson (DET) | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
| Slade Cecconi (CLE) | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Reese Olson has thrown just 43% of his pitches in the strike zone (342/801) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 0 Percentile.
Reese Olson has thrown just 43% of his pitches in the strike zone (1,137/2,654) since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 50% — first Percentile.
Reese Olson has thrown just 43% of his pitches in the strike zone (550/1,288) against right-handed batters since last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 50% — second Percentile.
Reese Olson has thrown just 43% of his pitches in the strike zone (587/1,366) vs left-handed batters since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 0 Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 22% (66/299) against Slade Cecconi this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Slade Cecconi has allowed a slugging percentage of .573 (145 Total Bases / 253 ABs) on fastballs since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: .424 — second Percentile.
Slade Cecconi has thrown 55% of his pitches in the strike zone (364/663) this season — tied for 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 51% — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 24% (202/856) against Slade Cecconi since last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 29% — first Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Tigers are 33-2 (.943) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .745.
The Tigers are 23-5 (.821) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .634.
The Tigers are 24-20 (.545) on the road this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .450.
The Tigers were 13-55 (.191) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Guardians are 19-0 (.950) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .745.
The Guardians are just 10-21 (.323) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season They play the Tigers (Ranks fifth runs scored) today.
The Guardians are just 19-25 (.432) after a loss this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .495.
The Guardians are 116-1 (.991) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Tigers are batting .272 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of .791 (921 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .691.
Tigers hitters have chased 26% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Tigers hitters are slugging .451 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .382.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .195 in righty-righty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .327 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .382.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .575 (434 PA’s) over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Guardians hitters have chased 42% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 12% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Tigers pitchers walked 416 of 5,969 batters (7%) in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% when going through the lineup the third time in a game over the last 14 days — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Batters facing the Tigers pitchers have struck out on pitches in the zone 56% of the time over the last 14 days — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%. over the last 14 days — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 25% against the Guardians pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Guardians pitchers have walked 4% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
More MLB Reading:
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