- The Tigers are -135 favorites vs the Guardians
- Tigers vs Guardians Over / Under today: 9 Runs
- Tigers / Guardians TV Channel: FOX
The Detroit Tigers (-130) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+110) on Saturday, July 5, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Cleveland, OH, OH.
This season, the Tigers are 55-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 44-41 ATS.
Tigers vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Tigers starting pitcher: Casey Mize 8-2, 2.86 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Logan Allen 5-6, 4.29 ERA
Tigers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | -1.5 +125 | O 9 -110 | -130 |
| Guardians | +1.5 -150 | U 9 -110 | +110 |
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 56.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Javier Baez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.10 Units / 75% ROI)
- Javier Baez has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 away games (+6.80 Units / 113% ROI)
- Jahmai Jones has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- Jahmai Jones has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- Casey Mize has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.95 Units / 59% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Logan Allen has hit the Pitching Outs Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.35 Units / 101% ROI)
- Logan Allen has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Logan Allen has hit the Strikeouts Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Logan Allen has hit the Earned Runs Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+1.95 Units / 44% ROI)
- Logan Allen has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+1.55 Units / 31% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
Guardians Best Bets Today:
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 48-41 against the Run Line (+4.5 Units / 4.02% ROI).
- 55-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.7 Units / 8.82% ROI
- 45-40 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 2.86% ROI
- 40-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.5 Units / -10.74% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 44-41 against the Run Line (-5.55 Units / -4.73% ROI).
- 40-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.95 Units / -5.08% ROI
- 35-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.35 Units / -15.57% ROI
- 47-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.55 Units / 7.96% ROI
Guardians vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
Guardians vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Lane Thomas (CLE) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Guardians vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kyle Manzardo (CLE) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Javier Baez (DET) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -220 |
Guardians vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Allen (CLE) | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
| Casey Mize (DET) | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .338 (52-for-154) against Casey Mize versus the 2-3-4 hitters in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .251 — first Percentile.
62% of Casey Mize’s strikeouts are on pitches in the zone this season — 11th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 93rd Percentile.
Casey Mize has a strike rate of 67% (427/638) vs left-handed batters this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 93rd Percentile.
Casey Mize has a strike rate of 70% (179/254) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 99th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
13 of Logan Allen’s 26 breaking pitch strikeouts (50%) have been backdoor this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 15% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 41% (454/1,100) against Logan Allen this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 48% — second Percentile.
Logan Allen has a strike rate of just 60% (659/1,100) against right-handed batters this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Logan Allen has thrown just 46% of his pitches in the strike zone (501/1,100) against right-handed batters this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 51% — sixth Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Tigers are 33-2 (.943) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .746.
The Tigers are 47-10 (.825) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Tigers are 23-5 (.821) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .633.
The Tigers were 18-54 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .143.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Guardians are 19-0 (.950) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .746.
The Guardians were 71-2 (.973) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Guardians are 110-3 (.973) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .902.
The Guardians were 77-2 (.975) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OPS of .789 (924 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .691.
Tigers hitters have struck out in 23% of their PA’s against RHP this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Tigers hitters are slugging .294 with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of .548 (1,791 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .511.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have struck out in 31% of their PA’s in righty-righty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .613 (961 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .691.
The Guardians are batting just .194 in righty-righty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .325 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .382.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Tigers pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 11% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Tigers pitchers have an ERA of 3.01 (401.0 IP) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Tigers pitchers walked 416 of 5,969 batters (7%) in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 25% against the Guardians pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Guardians pitchers have walked 4% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
More MLB Reading:
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