- The Tigers are -225 favorites vs the Guardians
- Tigers vs Guardians Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Tigers / Guardians TV Channel: GDTV | FDDT
The Detroit Tigers (-235) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (+195) on Sunday, July 6, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cleveland, OH, OH.
This season, the Tigers are 56-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 45-41 ATS.
Tigers vs Guardians Starting Pitchers Today:
- Tigers starting pitcher: Tarik Skubal 10-2, 2.16 ERA
- Guardians starting pitcher: Gavin Williams 5-4, 3.91 ERA
Tigers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | -2.5 +115 | O 7.5 -118 | -235 |
| Guardians | +2.5 -135 | U 7.5 -102 | +195 |
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Tigers will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 61.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Tarik Skubal has hit the Walks Allowed Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+14.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+13.45 Units / 42% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+11.30 Units / 41% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Walks Over in 13 of his last 20 away games (+10.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Wenceel Perez has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 away games (+10.50 Units / 105% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games at home (+12.65 Units / 158% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.55 Units / 62% ROI)
- Angel Martinez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+11.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+8.85 Units / 32% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 54 of their last 90 games (+17.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 87 games (+16.70 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 50 of their last 89 games (+13.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 53 of their last 90 games (+10.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 34 away games (+9.80 Units / 26% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 50 games (+16.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 51 of their last 84 games (+14.74 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 31 games at home (+12.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.75 Units / 36% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 48-42 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 2.19% ROI).
- 56-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.7 Units / 10.13% ROI
- 45-41 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.55 Units / 0.56% ROI
- 41-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.5 Units / -8.5% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Guardians are 45-41 against the Run Line (-3.55 Units / -2.95% ROI).
- 40-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.95 Units / -6.99% ROI
- 35-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.55 Units / -17.54% ROI
- 48-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.55 Units / 9.84% ROI
Guardians vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -450 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
| Colt Keith (DET) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Wenceel Perez (DET) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -800 |
Guardians vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Steven Kwan (CLE) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Colt Keith (DET) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +165 |
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Guardians vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Wenceel Perez (DET) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Colt Keith (DET) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Dillon Dingler (DET) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Guardians vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal (DET) | 7.5 -145 | 7.5 +110 |
| Gavin Williams (CLE) | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -120 |
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tarik Skubal has a strike rate of 71% (1,106/1,560) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Tarik Skubal has allowed an OPS of just .508 (413 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .688 — 100th Percentile.
Tarik Skubal has allowed a slugging percentage of just .079 (10 Total Bases / 126 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .292 — 100th Percentile.
Tarik Skubal’s K:BB ratio is 9.9 (138/14) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.0 — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Gavin Williams has walked 15% of opponent 7-8-9 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 0 Percentile.
Gavin Williams has allowed three-ball counts to 32% of right-handed batters he faced (64/200 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 18% — 0 Percentile.
Gavin Williams has walked 13% of batters this season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Gavin Williams has allowed three-ball counts to 28% of right-handed batters he faced (101/358 PA’s) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: 18% — 0 Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Tigers are 33-2 (.943) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .745.
The Tigers were 13-55 (.191) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
The Tigers are 56-34 (.622) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Tigers are 49-2 (.961) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .871.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Guardians are 19-0 (.950) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .745.
The Guardians are 103-5 (.954) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .862.
The Guardians are 110-3 (.973) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .902.
The Guardians are just 6-103 (.055) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .097.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Tigers are batting just .157 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of .781 (950 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .693.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of .337 (950 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
The Tigers are batting .266 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
The Guardians are batting just .192 in righty-righty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Guardians hitters have struck out in 31% of their PA’s in righty-righty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .580 (428 PA’s) in righty-righty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Guardians are batting just .294 in hitter’s counts since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers walked 416 of 5,969 batters (7%) in the 2024 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have walked 7% of batters since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 13% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Tigers pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .207 against Guardians pitchers with runners on base in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .223 against Guardians pitchers in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 25% against the Guardians pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Guardians allowed 0.87 runs per game (140/161) in late innings in the 2024 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
More MLB Reading:
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