- The – are favorites vs the –
- Tigers starting pitcher: Eduardo Rodriguez
- Guardians starting pitcher: Peyton Battenfield
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Detroit Tigers () visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians () on Wednesday, May 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Tigers vs Guardians Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Tigers are 16-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 15-21 ATS.
Tigers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | O | ||
| Guardians | U |
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 away games (+12.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+11.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Javier Baez has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.10 Units / 36% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 29 games (+9.80 Units / 29% ROI)
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 away games (+9.70 Units / 88% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 36 games (+16.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 35 games (+14.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+10.75 Units / 83% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+9.45 Units / 57% ROI)
Guardians vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1250 | 0.5 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +1450 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Guardians vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Myles Straw | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
Guardians vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eduardo Rodriguez | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games (+11.45 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 25 games (+9.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.75 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games (+5.30 Units / 19% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 29 games (+14.25 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 20 games (+13.75 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.65 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+2.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.05 Units / 17% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 20-15 against the Run Line (+1.85 Units / 4.27% ROI).
- 16-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.85 Units / 19.57% ROI
- 18-16 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.55 Units / 1.42% ROI
- 16-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.5 Units / -9.15% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 15-21 against the Run Line (-6.7 Units / -15.06% ROI).
- 17-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.45 Units / -17.28% ROI
- 12-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.15 Units / -33.29% ROI
- 23-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.9 Units / 24.91% ROI
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .176 (3-for-17) against Eduardo Rodriguez on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .354 — 97th Percentile.
Eduardo Rodriguez has a strikeout rate of just 14% (5 SO in 37 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 33% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .118 (4-for-34) against Eduardo Rodriguez’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — 98th Percentile.
Eduardo Rodriguez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .118 (4 Total Bases / 34 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .373 — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
15 of Peyton Battenfield’s 21 strikeouts (71%) have come on cutters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 4% — 100th Percentile.
Peyton Battenfield has located his fastball away 59% of the time (100/169) this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 97th Percentile.
Peyton Battenfield has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to April 18th — Corey Kluber has the longest active streak at 9.
Division opponents are hitting just .116 (5-for-43) against Peyton Battenfield this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 14 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 100th Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Tigers are just 82-114 (.418) since last season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Tigers are just 0-16 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Tigers are just 11-80 (.121) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Tigers are just 21-48 (.304) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Guardians are 21-69 (.233) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Guardians are 5-12 (.294) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .149.
The Guardians are 15-73 (.170) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .090.
The Guardians are just 2-9 (.182) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .614 (5,383 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .280 (5,383 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .616 (2,267 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .686.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .441 (3,902 PA’s) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .507.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 983 strikeouts in 5,530 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters have an OBP of just .287 (609 PA’s) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .626 (946 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 58% of their games on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Tigers pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 107 of 1,787 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 104 of 1,365 batters (8%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Guardians pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Anxiety, D60
- Tarik Skubal (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Matthew Manning (Tigers): Foot, D60
- Anthony Wingenter (Tigers): Biceps, D15
- Beau Brieske (Tigers): Arm, D15
- Kerry Carpenter (Tigers): Shoulder, D10
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
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