- The Guardians are -200 favorites vs the Tigers
- Tigers starting pitcher: Michael Lorenzen
- Guardians starting pitcher: Shane Bieber
- Watch the game on BSGL
The Detroit Tigers (+165) visit Progressive Field to take on the Cleveland Guardians (-200) on Tuesday, May 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Cleveland.
The Guardians are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Tigers vs Guardians Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Tigers are 16-18 against the spread (ATS), while the Guardians are 14-21 ATS.
Tigers vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -130 | O 7.5 -115 | +165 |
| Guardians | -1.5 +105 | U 7.5 -105 | -200 |
Tigers vs Guardians Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Guardians and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 away games (+12.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Javier Baez has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.25 Units / 41% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+10.00 Units / 49% ROI)
- Kerry Carpenter has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 away games (+9.70 Units / 88% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 28 games (+8.80 Units / 27% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 35 games (+18.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 34 games (+13.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- Oscar Gonzalez has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games at home (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+9.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 12 games at home (+9.35 Units / 78% ROI)
Guardians vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
Guardians vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Amed Rosario | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Steven Kwan | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -250 |
Guardians vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Will Brennan | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Amed Rosario | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Steven Kwan | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Guardians vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -130 |
| Michael Lorenzen | 3.5 -125 | 3.5 -105 |
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- team high – away
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- team high – home
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 20-14 against the Run Line (+3.15 Units / 7.49% ROI).
- 16-18 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.85 Units / 23.09% ROI
- 18-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.55 Units / 4.1% ROI
- 15-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.5 Units / -12.15% ROI
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 14-21 against the Run Line (-7.8 Units / -17.93% ROI).
- 16-19 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.45 Units / -20.15% ROI
- 12-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.15 Units / -31.56% ROI
- 22-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.9 Units / 23.09% ROI
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Lorenzen has walked 33 of 243 left-handed batters (14%) since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 8% — third Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has a strike rate of just 62% (281/451) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 69% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 20% (70/344) against Michael Lorenzen since last season — tied for 13th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 78 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (22/40) against Michael Lorenzen — 8th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 92nd Percentile.
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shane Bieber has located his fastball away 63% of the time (134/214) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .240 (6-for-25) against Shane Bieber on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .353 — 88th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has a strikeout rate of just 17% (30 SO in 181 PAs) this season — 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 11th Percentile.
Shane Bieber has allowed a slugging percentage of just .151 (11 Total Bases / 73 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .263 — 88th Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Tigers are just 0-16 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Tigers are 9-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Tigers are 17-2 (.895) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Tigers are just 80-98 (.449) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Guardians are 21-69 (.233) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Guardians are 15-73 (.170) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .090.
The Guardians are 21-46 (.313) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Guardians are just 16-19 (.457) this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .280 (5,347 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .615 (5,347 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .335 against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .223 with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 979 strikeouts in 5,500 PA’s (18%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters have an OPS of just .629 (1,320 PA’s) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .343 against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Tigers pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Tigers pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 58% of their games on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Guardians pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 18 of 318 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 536 of 7,315 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 106 of 1,778 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Guardians vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Aaron Civale (Guardians): Oblique, D15
- Triston McKenzie (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Anxiety, D60
- Tarik Skubal (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Matthew Manning (Tigers): Foot, D60
- Anthony Wingenter (Tigers): Biceps, D15
- Beau Brieske (Tigers): Arm, D15
- Kerry Carpenter (Tigers): Shoulder, D10
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
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