- The Mariners are -200 favorites vs the Tigers
- Tigers starting pitcher: Michael Lorenzen
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby
- Watch the game on ROOT Sports NW
The Detroit Tigers (+165) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-200) on Saturday, July 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Tigers vs Mariners Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Tigers are 40-50 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 43-47 ATS.
Tigers vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -125 | O 7.5 -110 | +165 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +105 | U 7.5 -110 | -200 |
Tigers vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 79.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Zack Short has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 5 away games (+5.50 Units / 83% ROI)
- Zack Short has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 away games (+5.10 Units / 75% ROI)
- Spencer Turnbull has hit the Pitching Outs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 72% ROI)
- Zack Short has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Austin Meadows has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- George Kirby has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.05 Units / 51% ROI)
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Runs Over in his last 5 games at home (+8.00 Units / 160% ROI)
- Cooper Hummel has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Marco Gonzales has hit the Strikeouts Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.20 Units / 53% ROI)
- Kolten Wong has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 39% ROI)
Mariners vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Mariners vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Mariners vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Mariners vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| George Kirby | 6.5 +115 | 6.5 -150 |
| Michael Lorenzen | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 67 games (+12.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 79 games (+8.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 42 away games (+8.35 Units / 16% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+5.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.45 Units / 29% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 48-42 against the Run Line (+0.35 Units / 0.31% ROI).
- 40-50 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.95 Units / 4.11% ROI
- 49-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.85 Units / 6.84% ROI
- 38-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.2 Units / -15.51% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 43-47 against the Run Line (-8.25 Units / -6.96% ROI).
- 45-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.9 Units / -9.98% ROI
- 45-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.65 Units / -2.64% ROI
- 43-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.05 Units / -6.17% ROI
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Lorenzen has a strike rate of 70% (360/513) against right-handed batters this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 97th Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 10.2 innings pitched — Kevin Kelly has the longest active streak at 22.0.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 16% (41/258) against Michael Lorenzen this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has a strikeout rate of just 7% (3 SO in 40 PAs) in late innings since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 100 total IP; League Avg: 22% — second Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby has a strike rate of 71% (596/836) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
George Kirby has a strike rate of 71% (1,122/1,581) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has a strike rate of 71% (526/745) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 97th Percentile.
George Kirby has thrown fastballs 69% of the time (350/508) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Tigers are just 27-40 (.403) after a home loss since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Tigers are just 6-10 (.375) after a road win this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Tigers are 14-6 (.700) after a loss as favorites since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .591.
The Tigers are 16-5 (.762) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .612.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Mariners are 62-9 (.873) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Mariners are 22-3 (.880) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .731.
The Mariners are just 4-27 (.129) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Mariners are 8-104 (.071) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .284 (6,964 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .276 (416 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .626 (6,964 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .342 against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .167 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Mariners are batting just .221 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Mariners are batting just .314 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
The Mariners are batting just .214 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have walked 256 of 3,397 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 58% of their games on the road since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 64% of their games since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 231 of 3,321 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Mariners pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 682 of 9,351 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Miller (Mariners): Finger, D15
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Anxiety, D60
- William Vest (Tigers): Leg, D15
- Tyler Alexander (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Neck, D60
- Matthew Boyd (Tigers): Elbow, D60
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