- The Mariners (89-72) are -150 favorites vs the Tigers (66-95)
- Tigers starting pitcher: Tyler Alexander (4-11), 4.72 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Marco Gonzales (10-15), 4.14 ERA
- Watch the game on ROOT Sports NW
The Detroit Tigers (+125) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-150) on Wednesday, October 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle.
The Mariners are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Tigers vs Mariners Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Tigers are 66-95 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 83-78 ATS.
Tigers vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -165 | O 7.5 -115 | +125 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +135 | U 7.5 -105 | -150 |
Tigers vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 65.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Miguel Cabrera has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+13.90 Units / 74% ROI)
- Miguel Cabrera has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+11.85 Units / 55% ROI)
- Miguel Cabrera has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+10.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 35 games (+10.05 Units / 14% ROI)
- Javier Baez has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 27 away games (+9.85 Units / 18% ROI)
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.10 Units / 35% ROI)
- Luis Castillo has hit the Strikeouts Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+10.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Luis Castillo has hit the Pitching Outs Under in his last 9 games (+9.50 Units / 78% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 27 games at home (+9.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.90 Units / 40% ROI)
Mariners vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Curt Casali | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Julio Rodriguez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Mitch Haniger | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
Mariners vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Curt Casali | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -115 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Julio Rodriguez | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -275 |
| Mitch Haniger | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
Mariners vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Curt Casali | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Julio Rodriguez | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Mitch Haniger | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -185 |
Mariners vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marco Gonzales | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -115 |
| Tyler Alexander | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 -105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Tigers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- team high – away
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- team high – home
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 78-83 against the Run Line (-16.85 Units / -8.26% ROI).
- 66-95 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.35 Units / -3.75% ROI
- 62-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -31.2 Units / -17.48% ROI
- 85-62 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.05 Units / 10.23% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 83-78 against the Run Line (-6.4 Units / -3.03% ROI).
- 89-72 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.15 Units / 1.47% ROI
- 74-79 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.6 Units / -6.56% ROI
- 79-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.55 Units / -0.87% ROI
Tyler Alexander: Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .369 (48-for-130) against Tyler Alexander versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: .257 — 0 Percentile.
Tyler Alexander has a strikeout rate of just 34% (143 SO in 421 PAs) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 7th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 43% — fifth Percentile.
Tyler Alexander has struck out just 13% (40/302) of right-handed batters he faced this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.
Tyler Alexander has a strikeout rate of just 14% (56 SO in 402 PAs) this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.
Marco Gonzales: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Marco Gonzales has allowed a slugging percentage of .736 (64 Total Bases / 87 ABs) on low fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .424 — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 19% (207/1,099) against Marco Gonzales this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — fourth Percentile.
Marco Gonzales has a strikeout rate of just 13% (98 SO in 752 PAs) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 15% (79/516) against Marco Gonzales this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Tigers are just 6-67 (.082) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .196.
The Tigers are just 64-85 (.430) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Tigers are just 4-7 (.364) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Tigers are just 31-49 (.388) on the road this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Mariners are 40-6 (.870) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Mariners are 68-1 (.986) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mariners are 45-10 (.818) when scoring in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Mariners are 18-2 (.900) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .804.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .289 (8,563 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .608 (4,332 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .703.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .277 (4,332 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .331 against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .166 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .169 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .218 at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Mariners are batting just .127 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Tigers pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Tigers pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 62% of their games since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The average home run distance against the Mariners pitchers since the start of last season is 395.5 feet — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
Mariners vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Julio Rodríguez (Mariners): Back, D10
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Borucki (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Jesse Winker (Mariners): Neck, D10
- Samuel Haggerty (Mariners): Groin, D10
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Jacob Rogers (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Rony García (Tigers): Bicep, D60
- Joe Jiménez (Tigers): Back, D15
- Tarik Skubal (Tigers): Arm, D60
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Willi Castro (Tigers): Hamstring, D10
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Mental Health, D60
- Matthew Manning (Tigers): Forearm, D60
- Kerry Carpenter (Tigers): Back, D10
- Beau Brieske (Tigers): Forearm, D60
- Kyle Funkhouser (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
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