- The Marlins are -155 favorites vs the Tigers
- Tigers starting pitcher: Reese Olson
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Detroit Tigers (+130) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-155) on Friday, July 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Tigers vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
This season, the Tigers are 46-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 48-55 ATS.
Tigers vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -165 | O 7 +105 | +130 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +140 | U 7 -125 | -155 |
Tigers vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 64.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Tigers vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Javier Baez has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+16.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Zack Short has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- Zack Short has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- Javier Baez has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+9.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Spencer Torkelson has hit the RBIs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+9.05 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 18 games at home (+10.30 Units / 52% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.15 Units / 29% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+10.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 26 of his last 36 games (+9.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+8.60 Units / 54% ROI)
Marlins vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Ibanez | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
Marlins vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Ibanez | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Marlins vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andy Ibanez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Marlins vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Braxton Garrett | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -105 |
| Reese Olson | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 48 away games (+10.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 80 games (+7.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 48 away games (+7.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 48 away games (+6.15 Units / 10% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 70 games (+10.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 games at home (+8.40 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 37 games at home (+6.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 70 games (+5.10 Units / 6% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 53-50 against the Run Line (-3.35 Units / -2.64% ROI).
- 46-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.55 Units / 3.19% ROI
- 53-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +2 Units / 1.75% ROI
- 46-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.5 Units / -10.25% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 48-55 against the Run Line (-16.85 Units / -12.39% ROI).
- 55-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.95 Units / 3.84% ROI
- 47-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.8 Units / -8.69% ROI
- 52-47 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.05 Units / 0.04% ROI
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Reese Olson has allowed an OBP of just .268 (179 PA’s) this season — tied for 12th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .314 — 93rd Percentile.
Reese Olson has allowed an OBP of just .045 (22 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order over the last 30 days (5 games) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .299 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .150 (9-for-60) against Reese Olson on sliders this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .229 — 97th Percentile.
Reese Olson has allowed a slugging percentage of just .300 (18 Total Bases / 60 ABs) on sliders this season — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .397 — 92nd Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (425/908) with two-strikes since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has walked 2 of 83 batters (2%) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 97th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 91.4 MPH (282 batted balls) this season — tied for 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 89.2 — fifth Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has allowed three-ball counts to 12% of batters they faced (49/416 PA’s) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 20% — 98th Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Tigers are just 28-43 (.394) after a home loss since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Tigers are just 8-12 (.400) after a road win this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Tigers are 16-6 (.727) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .585.
The Tigers are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Marlins are 11-118 (.085) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Marlins are 5-40 (.111) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Marlins are just 4-22 (.154) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Marlins are just 87-22 (.798) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .870.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .627 (7,314 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .342 against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .284 (7,314 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .621 (3,058 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .693.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 55 extra-base hits out of 222 total hits (just 25%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Marlins are batting .308 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have drawn 145 walks in 2,111 PA’s (7%) against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have walked 293 of 3,878 batters (8%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Tigers pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 62% of their games since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Tigers have won just 26% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have not walked any of the 45 batters that they have faced when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (5 games) — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Andrew Nardi (Marlins): Triceps, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Back, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Blister, Day-to-Day
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Mason Englert (Tigers): Hip, D15
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Anxiety, D60
- William Vest (Tigers): Leg, D15
- Tyler Alexander (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Neck, D60
- Matthew Boyd (Tigers): Elbow, D60
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