- The Marlins are -155 favorites vs the Tigers
- Tigers starting pitcher: Beau Brieske
- Marlins starting pitcher: Johnny Cueto
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The Detroit Tigers (+130) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-155) on Saturday, July 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Tigers vs Marlins Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Tigers are 46-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 48-56 ATS.
Tigers vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -155 | O 9 -120 | +130 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +125 | U 9 +100 | -155 |
Tigers vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 67.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Tigers and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Javier Baez has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+15.65 Units / 38% ROI)
- Spencer Torkelson has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 26 games (+10.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- Zack Short has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Eduardo Rodriguez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.40 Units / 57% ROI)
- Zack Short has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.40 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.55 Units / 26% ROI)
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 19 games at home (+9.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+8.60 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 21 games (+8.45 Units / 25% ROI)
Marlins vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -550 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
Marlins vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Marlins vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Javier Baez | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Riley Greene | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Johnny Cueto | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -120 |
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 49 away games (+9.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 45 of their last 81 games (+8.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 49 away games (+7.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 49 away games (+5.85 Units / 11% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 35 of their last 71 games (+11.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 31 games at home (+9.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games at home (+7.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 71 games (+6.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+5.20 Units / 18% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Tigers have gone 54-50 against the Run Line (-2.35 Units / -1.83% ROI).
- 46-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.55 Units / 2.27% ROI
- 54-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +3 Units / 2.6% ROI
- 46-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.65 Units / -11.16% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 48-56 against the Run Line (-17.85 Units / -13.03% ROI).
- 56-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.95 Units / 4.56% ROI
- 48-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.8 Units / -7.73% ROI
- 52-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.1 Units / -0.96% ROI
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Beau Brieske has not allowed a home run in any of the last 25.2 innings he’s appeared — Jose Quintana has the longest active streak at 78.1.
Opponents have a swing rate of 50% (12/24) against Beau Brieske on the first pitch of at-bats — tied for 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 12% (2/16) against Beau Brieske over the past seven days (2 games) — 4th lowest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 27% — fourth Percentile.
Beau Brieske has not allowed a HR in any of his last three starts dating back to July 2nd, 2022 — Jose Quintana has the longest active streak at 14.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased 212 of Johnny Cueto’s 553 fastballs out of the zone (38%) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .125 (11 GB hits out of 88 GBs) against Johnny Cueto with runners on base since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 98th Percentile.
Johnny Cueto has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 93% (14/15) of opposing batters over the past seven days (1 games) — 2nd highest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 66% — 98th Percentile.
Johnny Cueto has located his fastball inside 49% of the time (556/1,144) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Tigers are 16-6 (.727) after a loss as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .584.
The Tigers are just 28-43 (.394) after a home loss since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Tigers are just 8-12 (.400) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Tigers are just 8-12 (.400) after a road win this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .493.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Marlins are just 12-10 (.545) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .684.
The Marlins are 35-5 (.875) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .780.
The Marlins are 5-40 (.111) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Marlins are 32-20 (.615) at home this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .627 (7,321 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .343 against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .285 (7,321 PA’s) against RHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .354 since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins are batting .308 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Marlins hitters have 55 extra-base hits out of 222 total hits (just 25%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 40% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have walked 293 of 3,913 batters (7%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Tigers pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Andrew Nardi (Marlins): Triceps, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Oblique, D10
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Back, D10
- Tanner Scott (Marlins): Calf Strain, Day-to-Day
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Blister, Day-to-Day
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Casey Mize (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Mason Englert (Tigers): Hip, D15
- Austin Meadows (Tigers): Anxiety, D60
- William Vest (Tigers): Leg, D15
- Tyler Alexander (Tigers): Shoulder, D60
- Freddy Pacheco (Tigers): Elbow, D60
- Spencer Turnbull (Tigers): Neck, D60
- Matthew Boyd (Tigers): Elbow, D60
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